TMTB 早间快报

TMT BREAKOUTTMT突破NOV 12, 20252025年11⽉12⽇∙PAID∙已⽀付 Good morning. Futures up early this morning as AI semis leading the way withAMD+6%post a bullish set of #s at the analyst day. Holding the gains here today — whichwe expect it to do - would be a good tea leaf for the broader AI trade. Hopefully wecan get past the bubble talk (on both sides) and let stocks do their thing.Next bigcatalyst isNVDA +1.5%print next week. NAND/DRAM prices continue to riseovernight.BTC +2%. Asia up overnight: TPX +1.14%, NKY +0.43%, Hang Seng+0.85%, HSCEI +0.82%, SHCOMP -0.07%, Shenzhen -0.39%, Taiwan TAIEX +0.58%,Korea KOSPI +1.07%, 早上好。今早期货早盘上涨，⼈⼯智能半导体领涨，AMD在分析师⽇公布了⼀系列看涨数据后上涨6%。如果今天能保持涨幅⸺我们预计会如此⸺那将是更⼴泛的⼈⼯智能交易的⼀个好兆头。希望我们能摆脱泡沫论（⽆论哪⼀⽅），让股票顺其⾃然。下⼀个重磅催化剂是英伟达下周公布财报，上涨1.5%。NAND/DRAM价格隔夜继续上涨。⽐特币上涨2%。亚洲隔夜上涨：TPX上涨1.14%，⽇经指数上涨0.43%，恒⽣指数上涨0.85%，国企指数上涨0.82%，上证综指下跌0.07%，深圳下跌0.39%，台湾加权指数上涨0.58%，韩国KOSPI上涨1.07%。 Not a ton out overnight, but let’s get to it… 隔夜消息不多，但我们还是来看看吧…… AMD +5% after a better than expectations analyst daywhere they laid out a positive set of LT targets andconfirming co has visibility into new multi-GW customeradoption AMD在分析师⽇表现超出预期后上涨5%，他们公布了⼀系列积极的⻓期⽬标，并确认公司对新的多吉瓦客户采⽤情况有清晰的了解。 The #s数据 35%Revenue 3-5 year CAGR with >60% CAGR in Core Client + Embedded) with 40-50% DC CAGR.$1T TAM by 2030. GM 55-58% target by 2030. 35% operatingmargin. FCF margin 25%. EPS >$20 35%营收3-5年复合年增⻓率（核⼼客户+嵌⼊式业务复合年增⻓率>60%），数据中⼼复合年增⻓率40-50%。到2030年，总潜在市场规模达1万亿美元。到2030年，⽑利率⽬标为55-58%。营业利润率35%。⾃由现⾦流利润率25%。每股收益>20美元。 Numbers get you roughly$16 in ‘28 (street at$12.25 before today) 这些数字⼤致意味着2028年每股收益为16美元（今天之前市场预期为12.25美元）。 For 2030, the street will anchor at >$20, but if you use 35% top line growth guidance,you can get$25+. If you use the segment growth rates (60% DC, 10% Core) andmidpoint of GM, you get north of$30 对于2030年，市场将锚定在20美元以上，但如果使⽤35%的营收增⻓指导，可以达到25美元以上。如果使⽤细分市场增⻓率（数据中⼼60%，核⼼业务10%）和⽑利率中点，则可以达到30美元以上。 All in all, looks v good and better than expectations. Bulls will particularly the GMsnumbers as some were worried it would come in below 55%. Despite no customerannouncements, most think something is likely from AMZN at Re:invent in a fewweeks.Still plenty of skepticism around the OAI #s materializing and this won’t changethe debate. Bears will also push back that the margin forecasts are aggressive andthat buyside was already there on ‘27/’28 numbers.However, a good way to frame it isthis: if we just assume 2.3 GW of OAI revs through 2028, and nothing from OAI in2029, the guide implies$16 ex OpenAI in ‘29, which is 25x this price.We continue tolike the r/r here and came away raising our #s (higher GMs). We expect the gains tohold today. 总⽽⾔之，看起来⾮常好，超出预期。多头尤其看好⽑利率数据，因为此前有⼈担⼼会低于55%。尽管没有客户公告，但⼤多数⼈认为亚⻢逊在⼏周后的Re:invent⼤会上可能会有消息。对于OAI的数据能否实现，仍然存在很多怀疑，这不会改变争论。空头也会反驳说利润预测过于激进，⽽且买⽅已经对2027/2028年的数字有所预期。然⽽，⼀个很好的框架是：如果我们假设到2028年OAI营收仅为2.3 GW，并且2029年OAI没有营收，那么指导意味着2029年（不含OpenAI）每股收益为16美元，是当前价格的25倍。我们继续看好这⾥的⻛险/回报，并提⾼了我们的数字（更⾼的⽑利率）。我们预计今天的涨幅将保持。 Hon Hai Sees More AI-Driven Growth in 2026 After ProfitJumps 鸿海预计2026年AI驱动增⻓将加速，此前利润⼤增 Bloomberg:彭博社： TheNvidia Corp.partner said it sees continued growth driven by demand for AIserver assembly, offering some relief for investor concern about the sustainabilityof runaway spending on the technology. Without directly addressing fears of an AIbubble, Chairman Young Liu said Hon Hai is “very positive about AI and business in2026” on a conference call after earnings on Wednesday. 英伟达公司的合作伙伴表示，受⼈⼯智能服务器组装需求的推动，公司预计将持续增⻓，这在⼀定程度上缓解了投资者对⼈⼯智能技术失控⽀出可持续性的担忧。在周三财报发布后的电话会议上，董事⻓刘扬伟没有直接回应有关⼈⼯智能泡沫的担忧，但他表示鸿海“对2026年的⼈⼯智能和业务发展⾮常乐观”。 Taipei-based Hon Hai reported a better-than-expected 17% surge in net income, toNT$57.67 billion ($1.9 billion) in the September quarter. The company last monthreportedNT$2.06 trillion in revenue, an 11% rise that continued a streak of double-digit sales growth stretching back to last summer. 总部位于台北的鸿海公布，9⽉当季净利润飙升17%，达到576.7亿新台币（合19亿美元），好于预期。该公司上⽉公布营收为2.06万亿新台币，增⻓11%，延续了⾃去年夏天以来的两位数销售额增⻓势头。 SE: Deutsche Bank Upgrades to Buy, Raises PT to$170 onRenewed Growth and Shopee Momentum SE：德意志银⾏上调评级⾄“买⼊”，⽬标价上调⾄170美元，理由是增⻓势头重燃和Shopee的强劲表现 Deutsche Bank upgrades Sea Limited to Buy from Hold, lifting its price target to$170from$165, citing renewed confidence in Shopee’s growth trajectory and long-termefficiency gains. The firm says Q3 results showed revenue up 38% Y/Y, though profitswere weighed by heavy reinvestment in logistics and fulfillment. DB notes Shopee’sGMV grew 28% to$32B, driven by 12% higher purchase frequency and AI-drivenengagement that boosted conversion by 10%. While margins contracted due toupfront spending, DB believes these investments will yield faster delivery, strongerbrand loyalty, and sustainable market share. The firm also highlights solidperformance in digital finance, where revenue rose 61% Y/Y to$7.9B, maintaining lowNPLs at 1.1%, and says “Shopee is gaining, not losing, share.” 德意志银⾏将Sea Limited的评级从“持有”上调⾄“买⼊”，⽬标价从165美元上调⾄170美元，理由是对Shopee的增⻓轨迹和⻓期效率提升重拾信⼼。该⾏表示，第三季度业绩显示营收同⽐增