TMTB：收盘总结

DEC04,2025 2025年12⽉04⽇∙PAID∙付费TMTBREAKOUT TMT突破 Goodafternoon.QQQs+25bpsinafairlyquietsessionthatstartedwithsomeexcitementcreatedbyabackwardslookingTheInformationonMSFT.JThasthedetails: 下午好。QQQ在⼀个相当平静的交易时段上涨了25个基点，开盘时因TheInformation对微软（MSFT）的事后报道引发了⼀些波动。JT有详细内容： StockssoldoffbutralliedtorecoveralllossesdespiteMSFT-2.5%notrecoveringatall.BTC+4%caughtabidaswell,helpingHighShortInterest(+4.0%)andNon-ProfitableTech(+3.3%)outperform.Semiconductorswerethestandout(+2%),butlikeyesterdayleadershipshiftedawayfromtheusualAIdarlingstocyclical/industrialnames.MCHPripped+12.2%afterraisingitsquarterlyguidance,citingstrongbookingsandbacklog.Thisdraggedotheranalog/industrialpeershigher,withON+11%andNXPI+5.7%,whoalsosoundedgoodatUBSyesterday.TheSemiEquipmentsubsectoralsoshowedcontinuedstrength,up3.1%. 股票先抛售后反弹，尽管微软下跌2.5%且完全未能反弹，但仍收复了全部跌幅。⽐特币上涨4%，也被追捧，推动⾼空头兴趣（+4.0%）和⽆盈利科技股（+3.3%）跑赢⼤盘。半导体表现最为突出（+2%），但像昨天⼀样，领涨板块从通常的AI宠⼉转向了周期性/⼯业类个股。美⾼森美（MCHP）在上调季度指引后暴涨12.2%，称订单和积压强劲。这带动了其他模拟/⼯业同业股⾛⾼，安森美（ON）上涨11%，恩智浦（NXPI）上涨5.7%，两家公司昨天在瑞银的表态也很不错。半导体设备⼦板块也持续⾛强，上涨3.1%。 Gettinglatehere,soletʼsgetstraighttoit… 时间不早了，直接进⼊正题…… INTERNET互联⽹ SPOT-3.4%:lotsofquestionsonthisnamewhichlikelyspeakstoplentylong.Notalotofgreatanswersontheweakness,butaTMTBreaderchimesin: SPOT-3.4%：关于这只股票有很多问题，这很可能说明多头仓位很多。对于⾛弱的原因并没有太多确切答案，但⼀位TMTB读者发声了： SomealsomentionedWMGʼsdealwithSunothatwasannouncedonNov25,2025fortherecentweakness,whichsettledWMGʼscopyrightlawsuitagainstSuno,anAImusicplatform,replacinglitigationwithalicensingpartnershipthatallowsSunotolegallytrainAImodelsonWMGʼscatalog(withartistopt-in)—aspartofthedealSunoacquiredSongkick,thelivemusicandconcertdiscoveryappfromWMG.Aglass-halffullreadofthepartnershipforSPOTwouldbethat1)ByacquiringSongkick,SunoistryingtobuildadestinationforAImusic-meaningusersspendlesstimeonSpotifyandmoreonSunoand2)ThisgivesWMGandotherlabelsmoreleverage-partneringwithAItechfirmsgiveslabelsmorecontroloverthe“nextgeneration”ofmusicformatsandif“interactive/generativemusic”becomesthenextbigthing,labelsandAIwebsitesmightcontrolthatexperiencedirectly. 还有⼈提到最近⾛弱与华纳⾳乐集团（WMG）与Suno在2025年11⽉25⽇宣布的交易有关，该交易解决了WMG对Suno（⼀家AI⾳乐平台）的著作权诉讼，⽤许可合作取代了诉讼，允许Suno在获得艺⼈选择加⼊的前提下，合法地⽤WMG的曲⽬⽬录来训练AI模型⸺作为交易的⼀部分，Suno从WMG收购了现场⾳乐与演出发现应⽤Songkick。对SPOT较为乐观的解读是：1）通过收购Songkick，Suno正试图打造⼀个AI⾳乐的⽬的地⸺这意味着⽤户在Spotify上的停留时间可能减少，⽽在Suno上增加；2）这让WMG和其他唱⽚公司获得更⼤筹码⸺与AI科技公司合作使唱⽚公司对“下⼀代”⾳乐形式拥有更多控制权，如果“交互式/⽣成式⾳乐”成为下⼀个⼤趋势，唱⽚公司和AI⽹站可能会直接掌控这种体验。 SHOP+2%followingthrough-YipitwasoutaftertheclosesaidSHOPhadoneofstrongestnetmerchantaddsthisyearinOctober.IRwasatUBSandsounded good. SHOP+2%在盘后继续上涨⸺Yipit在收盘后表示SHOP在⼗⽉实现了今年最强劲的净商家新增之⼀。IR在瑞银时表现良好并传出积极信号。 RBLX-2%asRussiancommunicationsauthorityRoskomnadzorannouncedthatitisbanningaccesstotheRobloxplatforminthecountry,citingconcernsoverinappropriateandcorruptingcontentbeingmadeavailabletochildren(including“LGBTpropaganda”).Russiahadoer13M DAUsasofOctober2024,whichisabout8%oftotalDAUs;howeverasa%ofbookingsitshouldbealotless. RBLX-2%，因俄罗斯通信监管局Roskomnadzor宣布禁⽌在该国访问Roblox平台，称平台向⼉童提供不当和有腐蚀性的内容（包括“LGBT宣传”）。截⾄2024年10⽉，俄罗斯每⽇活跃⽤户超过1300万，约占总DAU的8%；但就预订额占⽐⽽⾔应远低于此⽐例。 DASH+2%continuestorallynowup11%thisweekafterAlfredLinʼsbuyDASH+2%，在AlfredLin买⼊后持续反弹，本周累计上涨现达11%。 ROKU-5%asread-throughfromaNFLX/WBDisnʼtgreat.Simplyspeaking,ROKUʼsbizmodelreliesonbeing“Switzerland”ofstreaming,whereallstreamingappsmustplaynice.ThefearforsomeinvestorsisthatifNFLXacquiresWBD(HBO/Max),itcreatesabehemothwithunprecedentedleverage,whichcouldbullyROKUonadsplitsorevenbypasstheirOSentirely.AlsoheardsomecalloutCathieWoodsellingsomeofherpositionforARKK. ROKU-5%，因从NFLX/WBD的动态中读出利空。简单来说，ROKU的商业模式依赖于成为流媒体的“瑞⼠”，即所有流媒体应⽤都必须和谐共存。⼀些投资者担⼼若NFLX收购WBD（HBO/Max），将形成⼀个拥有前所未有议价能⼒的巨头，可能在⼴告分成上压迫ROKU，甚⾄完全绕过其操作系统。另外还有传闻称CathieWood出售了部分持仓以换⼊ARKK。 TTD-3%onadigidayarticlethathighlightsthatforthefirsttimeinyears,TTDisshowingwillingnesstonegotiateitsstandardservicefeesandofferincentivestoagencies,largelyinresponsetoincreasedpressurefromAmazonandGoogle.Alsonegativeread-throughfromNFLX/WBDasTTDwinswhentheinternetisfragmented,andWBD/NFLXwouldcreateamassivewalledgarden. TTD下跌3%，⼀篇Digiday⽂章指出，多年来⾸次TTD表现出愿意就其标准服务费进⾏谈判并向代理机构提供激励，主要是回应来⾃亚⻢逊和⾕歌的⽇益增压。同时对NFLX/WBD也有负⾯影响，理由是当互联⽹碎⽚化时TTD会受益，⽽WBD/NFLX的合并将创造⼀个巨⼤的围墙花园。 AMZN-1%asRe:ivnentwasabitofadud.META-1%whileGOOGL+1%ledthelargecaps. AMZN下跌1%，因为Re:invent有点令⼈失望。META下跌1%，⽽GOOGL上涨1%，领涨⼤型股。 AI/SEMIS⼈⼯智能/半导体 MRVL+8%asbullswontheday(atleast)asco.ratchetedupmulti-yearAI DCoutlookmeaningfully:DCrevenuetogrow>25%y/yinFY27and~40%y/yinFY28,implying~50%CAGRinDCfromCY23throughFY28.Bullswillsaymgmthasde-riskedthenear-termcustomstoryandthenlayeredonbigoptionality.GivenfeedbackIʼveheard,stockstillfeelsshortedandnoonewantstobelievemgmtʼsforecastsgivenlackofcredibilityfrompastmis-steps. MRVL上涨8%，多头（⾄少当天）获胜，公司显著上调了多年期的AI数据中⼼前景：预计FY27数据中⼼收⼊同⽐增⻓>25%，FY28约同⽐增⻓~40%，暗示从CY23到FY28数据中⼼复合年增⻓率约为50%。多头会说管理层已降低近期定制化业务的⻛险，并在此基础上增加了巨⼤的可选性。根据我收到的反馈，股票仍感觉被做空，且没⼈愿意相信管理层的预测，因为过去的失误削弱了其可信度。 ALAB+7%assell-sidecameoutanddefendedthestockaftertheNV-linkAMZNnews.Werecappedacoupleinourmorningwrapandalsolikedthis: A