TMTB 当日总结

TMT BREAKOUTTMT突破OCT 23, 20252025年10⽉23⽇∙PAID∙付费 QQQs - 1%as weakness/volatility underneath the surface finally came for the indexes.Gold down again and now dn 8% in 2 days, biggest 2 day loss in > 10 years. BTCslipped below$110k. Momentum was down 4% today, close to a 3 z-score event andworst 2 day stretch since Jan and down double digits over the last week. Softwareoutperformed again today at the expense of AI names. QQQs -由于潜在的疲软/波动终于波及到指数，跌了1%。⻩⾦再次下跌，现在两天内下跌8%，是⼗多年来最⼤两⽇跌幅。⽐特币跌破110k美元。动量今天下跌4%，接近3个标准差事件，是⾃⼀⽉以来最糟糕的两⽇⾛势，并且过去⼀周累计下跌两位数。软件股今天再次表现优于AI概念股。 The High Beta Mo’ Pair is down close to 12%, which is about half way throughyour average momentum correction episode: ⾼⻉塔摩对（High Beta Mo’ Pair）下跌接近12%，⼤约处于你平均动量修正周期的⼀半位置： The Mega Cap vs Non-profitable Tech pair now up 15% in the last week: 巨头股对⽐⾮盈利性科技股（Mega Cap vs Non-profitable Tech）这⼀对在过去⼀周上涨了15%： What’s driving the weakness the overall today?A combination of a few things: 今天整体疲弱的原因是什么？是⼏种因素的组合： First, we’ve seen sell the news reactions over the last week, which started withORCLdown double digits since Thursday’s analyst day despite raising guidance.TSMfollowed after a solid print and very bullish AI commentary. This all follows some tepidreactions across the last two weeks to OpenAI deals withNVDA,AVGO, andORCL(AMDpx action notwithstanding). All of these announcements created a high bar fornear term outperformance headed into earnings season. ⾸先，我们在过去⼀周看到“利好出尽”式的反应，这始于ORCL⾃周四分析师⽇后尽管上调了指引却下跌了两位数。TSM在业绩强劲且对AI评论⾮常看好后也随之下挫。此前两周对OpenAI与NVDA、AVGO和ORCL的合作（不考虑AMD的股价表现）反应也相当平淡。所有这些公告在进⼊财报季时抬⾼了短期超额表现的⻔槛。 We thought the set up entering today was primed for possible strength in AI names asyou had a bevy of good news:APH/GEV/VRTresults were all strong;Anthropic+GOOGLdeal;APLDsigning$5B deal with a hyperscaler, the DoC supporting foreignpurchases of AI; andAMZN/AAPL/NFLX/Analogweakness all potentially helpingflows into AI. 我们认为进⼊今⽇的局⾯本可为AI相关个股带来潜在的强势，因为有⼀系列利好消息：APH/GEV/VRT的业绩均强劲；Anthropic与GOOGL达成交易；APLD与⼀家超⼤云服务商签署了50亿美元的合约；商务部⽀持对AI相关的外部采购；以及AMZN/AAPL/NFLX/Analog的疲软都可能有助于资⾦流⼊AI板块。 However, we immediately saw green to red reversals inGEV,VRTandAPLD— allcontinuing the recent sell-the-news action: 然⽽，我们⽴刻看到GEV、VRT和APLD从绿翻红再转绿的⾛势⸺都在延续近期的“利好出尽”卖压： NFLX -10%andTXN -6%misses didn’t help things to start off earnings season. NFLX下跌10%，TXN下跌6%，业绩不及预期，这让财报季开局并不顺利。 Add to that, the simmering narratives over the last couple weeks: “bubble” and“circular financing” talk drawing plenty of skepticism while spec/frothy namescontinued to rally; slowing user growth/time engagement at ChatGPT making therounds, Karpathy’s (former TSLA/OAI) podcast appearance over the weekend talkingdown AI expectations of AGI/capabilities, and theBABAwhite paper out earlier thisweek talking about a GPU pooling system that reduces # of H20 chips needed by80%+. 再加上过去⼏周酝酿的那些叙事：“泡沫”和“循环融资”的讨论引来了⼤量怀疑，⽽投机/泡沫化的名称仍在持续上涨；关于ChatGPT⽤户增⻓/使⽤时⻓放缓的传闻在流传，上周末Karpathy（前特斯拉/开放AI）在播客中淡化了对AGI/能⼒的预期；以及本周早些时候阿⾥巴巴发布的⽩⽪书，讨论了⼀种GPU池化系统，可将所需H20芯⽚数量减少80%以上。 Adding fuel to the fire are the macro cross-currents: — an ongoing gov’t shutdown.Trump vs. China, regional bank weakness, and subprime concerns. And we haven’teven mentioned the factor see-saw which has been paining L/S HFs all month long:one day its retail shorts outperforming, the next day is cyclical shorts, another daybeta net an issue, another day AI winners, and so on. This has all caused the beginningof some de-leveraging among HFs until things settle down a bit. ⽕上浇油的是宏观上的交叉影响：⸺持续的政府停摆、特朗普与中国的对⽴、区域性银⾏的疲弱以及次贷忧虑。我们甚⾄还没提到本⽉⼀直折磨多空对冲基⾦的权重摆动因素：有⼀天是散户做空表现优异，第⼆天是周期性板块做空，另⼀天⼜是⻉塔净敞⼝成问题，再另⼀天⼜是⼈⼯智能的⼤赢家，诸如此类。这些都导致对冲基⾦开始出现⼀定程度的去杠杆，直到局势稍微平稳⼀些。 Does this change our view of the AI trade? 这会改变我们对⼈⼯智能交易的看法吗？ No we think all is good, although the fall has definitely brought about cooler tempsafter the HOT AI Summer. Yet, price action is what it is and we respect that above allelse as we head into what looks like a tricky EPS season. All eyes are on capex commentary next week from the hypersscalers. 不，我们认为⼀切都好，尽管在炎热的AI夏季之后，秋天确实带来了更凉的温度。然⽽，价格⾛势就是价格⾛势，我们在进⼊看起来棘⼿的盈利季时把它置于⾸位。所有⼈的⽬光都集中在下周来⾃超⼤规模云服务商的资本⽀出评论上。 For now: we mentioned in our weekly we had brought down net and gross on Fridayand we took it another leg lower today. It feels like we could be closer to the end thanthe beginning of the correction, but we’re happy to focus on protecting PnL in the veryshort term and sharpen our pencils on risk/reward’s as we await cleaner price actionand let the cross-currents in the market digest. ⽬前：我们在周报中提到周五我们已经降低了净头⼨和总头⼨，今天⼜进⼀步下调了⼀步。感觉这次回调可能离尾声⽐起始更近，但我们愿意在⾮常短期内把重点放在保护盈亏上，并在等待更清晰的价格⾛势、让市场的交叉动⼒消化期间，进⼀步细化我们的⻛险/回报评估。 INTERNET互联⽹ GOOGL +50bpsafter reports of a bigAnthropicdeal. Also, they had a blog postsaying unveiling Quantum Computing Breakthrough on Willow Chip. Here’sBloomberg: 据报道与Anthropic达成⼤协议后，GOOGL上涨50个基点。另外，他们在⼀篇博客⽂章中称将在Willow芯⽚上公布量⼦计算突破。以下是彭博社： Alphabet Inc.’s Google ran an algorithm on its “Willow” quantum-computing chipthat can be repeated on similar platforms and out