TMTB早报：TMT突破

TMT Breakouttmtbreakout.com/p/tmtb-morning-wrap-d60 May 6, 2026 Good morning.Futures +1.3%on the back of better news out of the Middle East andcontinued positive AI vibes following Lisa Su’s bullish earnings call. On the macro front, Oil -9%as Axios reported that US is getting close to an agreement with Iran on a one-pagememorandum of understanding to end the war and set a framework for more detailed nuclearnegotiations with US expecting an Iranian response in next 48 hours. Yields falling 6-8bpsacross the curve. Asia green overnight: Hang Seng +1.22%, HSCEI +0.8%, SHCOMP +1.17%, Shenzhen+2.24%, SHCOMP +1.17%, Shenzhen +2.24%, Taiwan TAIEX +0.91%, Korea KOSPI +6.45%.Samsung +19%(not a typo);SK Hynix +15%,both hitting new highs. AMD +19%is taking semis up along with it with the group +3.5%. CPU plays up in sympathywithARM +12%ahead of earnings.GLW +20%on an NVDA partnership.HUT +40%afterannouncing a $10B DC lease in Texas taking neoclouds higher. Price action in AI semis asstrong as I’ve seen it since the first year of the AI trade following ChatGPT’s launch. EvenNVDA +2%getting some love this morning. Outside of that, internet doing its best not to gettossed aside withUBER +8%after a beat vs. very low expectations (DASH/EXPE/LYFT +4-5%in sympathy. We’ll cover everything earnings first -AMD, ANET, ALAB, LITE, CPNG, UBER— then moveonto the usual. Should be another fun one. Let’s get to it… AMD +16%: Numbers largely in buyside (better revs, slightly lower GMs) butCEO Lisa Su stole the show on the conference call with bullish CPU/GPUcommentary One of the more bullish calls I’ve heard recently, and it doesn’t take much to ignite a flamethese days in any AI name. The tone from Lisa was notably more bullish than last q, followingINTC with bullish CPU commentary which is what investors are focused on. AMD doubled theirserver CPU TAM from $60B to $120B (35% CAGR through 2030), driven by a “meaningfulacceleration” in customer demand, pointing to agentic CPU as the main driver. Q2 server CPUrevs expected +70% in Q2 with further growth in 2H and into 2027. Similar to what we haveheard from INTC and ARM, Lisa talked about CPU/GPU ratio heading towards 1:1, and talkedup unit growth as main driver in Q1. On Long-term targets, she talked up growth target of 80%,and said she was very confident they could deliver $20+, which I took as setting a floor for2028. On GPUs, mgmt said OpenAI and Meta engagements are going well, customer forecastsare above the initial 2027 plan, more customers are engaging on significant MI450deployments, and many are already discussing MI500. She also answered some bear fearsaround lack of capacity supply, saying they have secured enough supply to meet or exceedtargets. Really not much to dislike here, and stock now +16% after being down 3% initially and +10%by the time I went to sleep. Valuation still seems palpable — if you think they can put up $20+in ‘28, stock still trading <20x. We think $30 is a plausible bull case by 2030. Stock getting a few upgrades this morning including from Bernstein and GS. Bull vs. Bear Debate Bullssee AMD as one of the cleanest ways to own the broadening AI compute cycle beyondpure GPU acceleration. The key change is that the AI infrastructure story is no longer only “canAMD take GPU share from NVDA?” It is now also “does agentic AI structurally expand theneed for server CPUs?” This quarter gave bulls a much stronger answer. Server CPU revenue grew >50% y/y, mgmt guided >70% y/y in FQ2, and the server CPU TAM target doubled to>$120B by 2030. That reframes EPYC as a major AI beneficiary, not just a traditionalenterprise/server share-gain story. If CPU-to-GPU ratios move toward 1:1, or higher in agenticworkloads, AMD’s CPU attach to AI infrastructure can grow even if AMD remains a minorityGPU supplier. The second bull leg is that MI450/Helios is still on track. There was a meaningful concern intothe quarter that the 2H26 rack-scale ramp could slip or that customer traction beyondOpenAI/Meta would remain narrow. Instead, mgmt said MI450 is sampling, initial volume is ontrack for Q3, a significant ramp is planned for Q4, and customer forecasts are above the initial2027 plan. That gives bulls more confidence that AMD can move from pilot deployments intotens of billions of annual Data Center AI revenue by 2027. If the July AI event brings additionallarge customers or more details on MI500, the bull case broadens further. On valuation, bulls are increasingly underwriting AMD on CY27/CY28 EPS power rather thannear-term revenue beats. A common bull framework is that AMD can grow revenue 45%-60%in CY27 as Data Center becomes the majority of sales, with EPS moving into the $$20+ rangeby /CY28. At 30xx that EPS, which bulls argue is justified by 50%+ EPS growth and a dualCPU/GPU AI narrative, the stock can go to $600+. Bearsargue that the stock has already capitalized a lot of the upside. AMD had rallied sharplyinto the print, positioning was crowded, and the af