TMTB 早报

TMT BREAKOUTJAN 05, 20262026年1⽉5⽇∙PAID∙已付费 Good morning.Futures +65bps. The AI Vibes are back in full force — kicked off withthe OpenAI fundraising news right before the holidays marking the lows andaccelerated with a lot of continued positive news flow over the break, the mostimportant in our view being how good Claude Code/Opus 4.5 is. Among the manymajor releases we’ve seen over the last three years around AI that have wow’d us, thisone feels like a top-three moment in terms of real, tangible step-function improvementrather than incremental progress. We find it hard to disagree that it’s “coding AGI.”While the discussion was loud on X, given the holiday break, talking to some otherinvestors we got the sense it went relatively under the radar. But to us, it played a notso small part in the moves on Friday with the semi vs. software spread blowing out(Friday saw one of the 3 largest daily spreads in 20+ years) 早上好。期货上涨65个基点。AI的热度全⾯回归⸺先是假期前OpenAI的融资消息标志着低点，随后假期期间持续不断的利好消息加速了这⼀势头，我们认为其中最重要的是Claude Code/Opus 4.5的出⾊表现。在过去三年我们看到的众多令⼈惊叹的AI重⼤发布中，就真实、切实的阶梯式改进（⽽⾮渐进式进步）⽽⾔，这⼀次感觉可以排进前三。我们很难否认它就是“编程领域的AGI”。虽然X平台上的讨论⾮常热烈，但考虑到假期因素，在与其他⼀些投资者交流后，我们感觉它在某种程度上被忽视了。但对我们来说，它在周五的⾏情中发挥了不⼩的作⽤，导致半导体与软件股的价差⼤幅拉开（周五出现了20多年来最⼤的三个单⽇价差之⼀）。 On that note, with the help of Claude code,we launchedTMTB Archiveyesterdayincase you missed it, which helps you easily search and sort through all of TMTB’shistorical posts (both Morning Wraps and EOD Wraps) by tickers and other things.Check it out and let me know what you think. 顺便提⼀下，在Claude Code的帮助下，我们昨天上线了TMTB Archive（以防您错过），它可以帮助您轻松地按股票代码和其他维度搜索和分类TMTB的所有历史⽂章（包括早报和收盘总结）。欢迎查看并告诉我们您的想法。 Asian marketsup overnight:TPX+2.01%,NKY+2.97%,Hang Seng+0.03%,HSCEI-0.22%,SHCOMP+1.38%,Shenzhen+2%,Taiwan TAIEX+2.57%,Korea KOSPI+3.43%. HSTECH up small (Alibaba, Semis led while EVs lagged). Semi index +4%+helped b2 Memory/AI/Semicaps.BTC +2%popping above$93k.Yieldsdown 1-2 bpsacross the curve. NextFed Cutpriced for 4/29.Polymarket is showing a tight race toreplace Powell, withHassettat 41% vs.Warshat 37%. 亚洲市场隔夜⾛⾼：东证指数(TPX) +2.01%，⽇经指数(NKY)+2.97%，恒⽣指数+0.03%，恒⽣中国企业指数(HSCEI) -0.22%，上证综指(SHCOMP) +1.38%，深证成指+2%，台湾加权指数(TAIEX)+2.57%，韩国综合指数(KOSPI) +3.43%。恒⽣科技指数微涨（阿⾥巴巴、半导体领涨，电动汽⻋落后）。受存储/AI/半导体设备板块提振，半导体指数上涨超过4%。⽐特币上涨2%，突破9.3万美元。各期限收益率下降1-2个基点。市场定价下⼀次美联储降息将在4⽉29⽇。Polymarket显示接替鲍威尔的⼈选竞争激烈，哈塞特(Hassett)为41%，沃什(Warsh)为37%。 CES kicks off today with Jensen speaking at 4pm est. and Lisa Su at 9:30pm est. CES今⽇开幕，⻩仁勋将于东部时间下午4点发表讲话，苏姿丰将于东部时间晚上9:30发表讲话。 Lots of companies hosting 1x1 meetings with investors, includingNVDA, MU, SWKS,ON, INTC, MRVL, ADI, SLAB CRUS, QCOM 许多公司正在与投资者举⾏⼀对⼀会议，包括NVDA、MU、SWKS、ON、INTC、MRVL、ADI、SLAB、CRUS、QCOM JPM fireside chat withNVDAtomorrow -linkhere…MRVLalso fireside chattomorrow 摩根⼤通明天将与NVDA举⾏炉边谈话-链接⻅此… MRVL明天也将举⾏炉边谈话 Jefferies software bus tourin SF also starts today. Agendahere…Good lineup Jefferies软件⾏业旧⾦⼭巴⼠巡回调研也于今⽇开启。议程如下……阵容不错 Lots to get to, so let’s get straight to it… 要处理的内容很多，我们直接进⼊正题…… ASML: Bernstein Upgrades to Outperform and Names TopEU Semi Pick for 2026; PT€1,300 ASML：伯恩斯坦将其评级上调⾄“跑赢⼤盘”，并列为2026年欧洲半导体⾸选股；⽬标价1,300欧元 Bernstein upgrades ASML to Outperform and makes it its top EU semis pick for 2026,with the firm saying the next DRAM upcycle materially lifts EUV demand as memorymakers expand greenfield capacity and push node migration to 1c. Bernstein noteslithography intensity rises to ~28% at 1c (vs. low-20s prior nodes), while advancedlogic adds a second leg of demand as TSMC ramps 3nm capacity, driving what theanalyst sees as strong EUV growth in 2026–27. The firm lifts ASML’s EPS growthoutlook to an 18% CAGR over 2025–27 and argues valuation remains reasonable at~1x premium to SPE peers, below its historical average. Bernstein raises its pricetarget to€1,300, implying ~32% upside. Bernstein将ASML的评级上调⾄“跑赢⼤盘”，并将其列为2026年欧洲半导体股的⾸选。该机构表示，随着存储⼚商扩⼤新⼚产能并将⼯艺节点向1c推进，下⼀轮DRAM上⾏周期将实质性提升EUV需求。Bernstein指出，光刻强度在1c节点将升⾄约28%（此前节点为20%左右），⽽随着台积电扩充3nm产能，先进逻辑芯⽚将贡献第⼆增⻓引擎，驱动分析师预期的2026-27年EUV强劲增⻓。该机构将ASML在2025-27年间的每股收益（EPS）增⻓预期上调⾄18%的复合年增⻓率，并认为其估值较半导体设备（SPE）同⾏溢价约1倍，仍处于合理⽔平且低于历史平均值。Bernstein将其⽬标价上调⾄1,300欧元，意味着约32%的上涨空间。 Our friend M. Chiang at Bernstein points out feedback from upgrade: While the bullsargue plenty of upside potential from DRAM and more if TSMC increases spending,the bears worry about China’s tech advancements and prefer competitors with deepermemory exposure. 我们在联博（Bernstein）的朋友M. Chiang指出了更新后的反馈：多头认为DRAM仍有巨⼤的上涨潜⼒，且如果台积电增加⽀出，上涨空间将更⼤；⽽空头则担⼼中国的技术进步，并更⻘睐那些在存储领域敞⼝更深的竞争对⼿。 AMD: Aletheia Reiterates Buy, Raises SOTP TP to$330 onMI455X-Led AI Ramp AMD：Aletheia重申买⼊评级，受MI455X引领的AI增⻓推动，将分部估值法（SOTP）⽬标价上调⾄330美元 Aletheia reiterates Buy on AMD and lifts its SOTP-based target to$330, with the firmarguing the AI accelerator ramp could push AMD to more than double total revenue by2027. Aletheia says AI accelerator revenue could run to roughly$9.5bn in 4Q26E andexpand into the mid-$30bn range in 2027, surpassing server CPU and nearing AMD’sentire 2025 revenue base. The analyst flags MI455X as th