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TMTBREAKOUT TMT突破DEC16,2025 2025年12⽉16⽇∙PAID∙付费内容 Goodmorning.Futures-20bpsaheadofthejobsreportinafewminutes.BTC+1%hoveringaround$87k.Yieldsflattish.StocksdownacrosstheboardinAsia:TPX-1.78%,NKY-1.56%,HangSeng-1.54%,HSCEI-1.79%,SHCOMP-1.11%,Shenzhen-1.5%,TaiwanTAIEX-1.19%,KoreaKOSPI-2.24%.WarshremainsaheadofHassettonPolymarket(45%vs.41%)forthenextFedchairappointment. 早上好。就业报告即将发布，期货市场下跌20个基点。⽐特币上涨1%，徘徊在8.7万美元附近。收益率基本持平。亚洲股市全线下跌：东证指数下跌1.78%，⽇经225指数下跌1.56%，恒⽣指数下跌1.54%，恒⽣中国企业指数下跌1.79%，上证综指下跌1.11%，深证成指下跌1.5%，台湾加权指数下跌1.19%，韩国综合指数下跌2.24%。在Polymarket平台上，沃什仍领先于哈⻄特（45%对41%），成为下⼀任美联储主席的热⻔⼈选。 Fairlyquietmorningalthoughgettingaflurryofthetypicalendofyearupgrades/downgradesfromthesell-sideintheir2026pieces. 这个上午相当平静，但卖⽅机构在发布2026年预测时，通常会有⼀波年终评级调整（上调或下调）。 Letʼsgettoit…让我们开始吧… NOW:GuggenheimUpgradestoNeutral,RemovesPTAmidPersistentChallenges 现在：古根海姆将评级上调⾄中性，在持续挑战中移除⽬标价。 GuggenheimupgradesServiceNowtoNeutralfromSellafterthestockmovedbelowitspriorpricetarget,sayingmuchofthedownsideisnowreflectedfollowingprolongedunderperformance.ThefirmnotesAImonetizationremainsunderwhelmingandthatacquisition-drivengrowthisobscuringsofterorganictrends.GuggenheimflagsrisingM&Arisk,includingrecentdealsandpotentiallargertransactions,asaddinguncertaintytotheoutlook.WhileacknowledgingServiceNowʼspremiumfranchise,theanalystremovesthe$766pricetargetandstressesthisisnotacallto buy,withfurtherdownsidestillpossible. 古根海姆将ServiceNow评级从卖出上调⾄中性，因股价跌破此前⽬标价位，称在⻓期表现不佳后，其下⾏⻛险已⼤部分被市场消化。该机构指出⼈⼯智能货币化表现依然疲软，收购驱动的增⻓掩盖了疲软的有机增⻓趋势。古根海姆强调并购⻛险正在上升，包括近期交易及潜在更⼤规模并购，为前景增添不确定性。分析师虽承认ServiceNow的优质特许经营权，但取消了766美元的⽬标价，并强调此⾮买⼊建议，股价仍可能进⼀步下跌。 CEO BillMcDermittwasonCNBCtalkingcloseofMoveworksandsaying“theresultsofourorganicgrowthmachinespeakforthemselves.” ⾸席执⾏官⽐尔·⻨克德⽶特在CNBC节⽬中谈及Moveworks交易，并表示"我们有机增⻓机制的成果不⾔⾃明"。 ROKU:MorganStanleyUpgradestoOverweight,RaisesPTto$135onCTVAdAcceleration ROKU：摩根⼠丹利上调评级⾄增持，基于CTV⼴告加速将⽬标价升⾄135美元 MorganStanleyupgradesRokutoOverweightfromUnderweightandraisesitspricetargetto$135,citingastronger2026U.S.advertisingoutlookledbyconnectedTV.MSsaysacceleratingmigrationofsportsandpoliticaladdollarstostreamingshouldnarrowthemonetizationgap,drivingPlatformrevenuegrowthto~19%in2026versus~15%priorandStreet.ThefirmhighlightsRokuʼsscale,deeperpartnerships,andexpandingmonetizationtoolsassupportingmoredurabledouble-digitgrowththrough2027–28.Valuationisbasedon~6.5xFY27grossprofit,withsustainedPlatformgrowthseenasthekeyupsidedriver. 摩根⼠丹利将Roku评级从减持上调⾄超配，并将其⽬标价调升⾄135美元，理由是联⽹电视带动2026年美国⼴告前景⾛强。摩根⼠丹利表示，体育和政治⼴告资⾦加速流向流媒体，应会缩⼩其盈利差距，推动平台收⼊增⻓在2026年达到约19%，此前预期和华尔街共识均为约15%。该公司强调Roku的规模、深度合作伙伴关系以及扩展的变现⼯具，有望⽀持其直⾄2027-2028年保持更持久的两位数增⻓。估值基于约6.5倍的2027财年⽑利润，平台持续增⻓被视为关键的上⾏驱动因素。 Stocktryingtobreakoutof3-yearbase: 股票试图突破三年区间： ACN:MorganStanleyUpgradestoOverweight,Sets$320PTonValuationandAI Clarity ACN：摩根⼠丹利因估值和AI前景上调⾄超配，⽬标价320美元 MorganStanleyupgradesAccenturetoOverweightwitha$320pricetarget,citinganattractiveentryat~18xFY27EPSwithestimaterisknowtiltedupward.MSsaysthe~21%YTDdeclinedrivenbyGenAIdisruptionfearsandDOGEconcernsislargelypricedin,whilelowerratesandbettervisibilityonAI ROIshouldsupportITservicesbudgetgrowth.ThefirmhighlightsM&AandpartnershipswithAI-nativeplayersasaddedgrowthleversandnotesVCinvestment—anearlydemandsignal—appearstohavebottomed.WithACNtradingatan~18%discounttothemarketversusahistoricalpremium,MSseesroomformultipleexpansionasestimatesimproveintoFY26–27. 摩根⼠丹利将埃森哲评级上调⾄超配，⽬标价320美元，理由是当前约18倍的2027财年预期市盈率为具有吸引⼒的⼊场点，且盈利预测⻛险已转为上⾏。该⾏指出，年初迄今约21%的跌幅主要由对⽣成式AI冲击的担忧和DOGE顾虑驱动，这些因素已被市场充分消化；⽽降息趋势及AI投资回报率能⻅度改善应能⽀撑IT服务预算增⻓。报告强调，埃森哲通过并购及与原⽣AI企业合作形成的增⻓杠杆正在增强，并指出作为早期需求信号的创投资⾦似已触底回升。埃森哲当前交易估值较历史溢价⽔平存在约18%的市场折价，随着2026-2027财年盈利预测上修，摩根⼠丹利认为其估值倍数具备扩张空间。 GTLB:DowngradedtoSectorWeightonExecutionRiskand2026Headwinds GTLB评级下调⾄⾏业均配：基于执⾏⻛险和2026年前景挑战 ThefirmdowngradesGitLabtoSectorWeightfromOverweight,pointingtomultiplemovingpartsandrisingexecutionrisk.Keyconcernsincludepricingpressureinto2026,increasedcomplexityfromusage-basedelementstiedtotheDuoAgentplatform,andalingeringoverhangfromAIcodegenerationonseat-baseddevelopergrowth.WhiletheanalystcontinuestoviewGitLabʼsplatformasstrategicallysound,thefirmseesamorebalancedrisk-rewardatcurrentlevels. 该机构将GitLab评级从增持下调⾄⾏业平配，指出其⾯临多重变动因素且执⾏⻛险上升。主要担忧包括：直⾄2026年可能⾯临的定价压⼒、由DuoAgent平台按使⽤量计费模式带来的复杂性增加，以及基于席位的开发者增⻓仍受AI代码⽣成影响的持续阴霾。尽管分析师仍认为GitLab平台战略稳健，但该机构认为当前价位下⻛险回报已趋于均衡。 ZS:MizuhoUpgradestoOutperform,Sets$310PTonValuationResetandImprovingGrowthSetup ZS：瑞穗银⾏上调评级⾄跑赢⼤盘，基于估值重塑与增⻓前景改善将⽬标价设为310美元 ThefirmsaysF1Qexecutionwassolid,withARRgrowthaheadofexpectations,butsentimentwasweigheddownbyslightlylowerincrementalARRguidanceandreducedtransparencyaroundRedCanarycontributions.Mizuhonotesthestockisnowdown~31%sincelateOctober,leavinginvestorswellcompensatedgivenZSʼsleadershipinSASE/ZeroTrustandcontinuedorganicmomentumacrossZeroTrustEverywhere,datasecurity,andAIsecurity.Theanalysthighlightsthatthesegrowthvectorsnowexceed$1BinARR,including~$400MofAIsecurityARRgrowingover80%y/y,withearlytractionfromZ-Flexfurthersupportingtheoutlook.Valuationisakeysupport