清晨洞察：2025年12月4日

Morning Insight:December 4, 2025 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Caustic soda:The trend remains under pressure. High production and highinventory levels continue, and the market is persistently shorting chlor- On the supply side, winter is typically the off-season for maintenance inchlor-alkali plants; with high operating rates, supply pressure forcaustic soda remains significant. Producers are facing high inventory Overall, caustic soda valuations remain suppressed by expectations ofalumina production cuts. On the cost side, liquid chlorine prices have Copper:Multiple bullish factors are resonating, pushing prices higher.The unexpected drop in U.S. November ADP data has led investors to become According to market reports, Codelco is offering over US $500/tonnepremium for copper sold to the United States, and over US $300/tonnepremiums to Europe, South Korea, Japan, etc., which may make warehouse Moreover, CSPT has agreed to reduce mined-copper capacity load by morethan 10% in 2026 to improve concentrate supply-demand balance—a move On the demand side, the long-term consumption recovery logic remainssolid. Power grids, new energy, and data-center/computing-power From a pricing perspective, investment into AI-powered data centers isstill in a competitive expansion phase. Since copper raw-material cost is investors are more tolerant of rising copper prices. If investment incomputing-power centers remains a key market theme, copper prices could Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. Chinese authorities have unveiled a guideline on strengthening data-related disciplines and digital talent development to boost the role ofdata as an innovation engine in empowering new quality productive forces. China will support eligible institutions, with participation from dataenterprises and research institutes, in establishing data-related Vocational schools are encouraged to make dynamic adjustments to include China will also encourage localities to set up joint entities based onindustrial parks, as well as support leading enterprises, top colleges 2. China's service trade maintained steady growth in the first 10 monthsof the year, with total imports and exports reaching nearly 6.58 trillion Specifically, service exports rose 14.3 percent to over 2.9 trillion yuanin this period, while imports increased 2.6 percent to more than 3.67 Knowledge-intensive services saw continued growth in trade, with imports Travel service trade totaled almost 1.81 trillion yuan, an increase of8.5 percent compared with a year earlier. Meanwhile, travel services 3. The People's Bank of China (PBOC), the country's central bank,injected liquidity into the market using multiple tools in November, it The PBOC injected 1 trillion yuan (about 141.2 billion U.S. dollars)through its medium-term lending facility (MLF) over the last month and In addition to the MLF operations, it also reported that its open markettrading of treasury bonds had yielded a net injection of 50 billion yuan, Through seven-day reverse repo operations, the central bank injected 4.8trillion yuan through these agreements but withdrew 5.36 trillion yuan, Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consulting The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solely Disclaimer The information in this report is derived from publicly available sources, but the Company does not guarantee the accuracy,cohesiveness, or reliability of such information. The research, opinions, and forecasts contained in this report reflect theCompany'sjudgment as of the date of the report's release. The prices of the underlying futures analyzed in the report may fluctuate, and past The research services mentioned in this report may not be suitable for individual clients and do not constitute private consulting advice forclients. Clients should consider whether any opinions or suggestions in this report are appropriate when applied to their specific situation.Under no circumstances do the research or opinions expressed in this report constitute investment advice to any individ