清晨洞察：2025年11月25日

Morning Insight:November 25, 2025 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Ferrous Metals:Changes in Raw Material Expectations, Prices Shifting Industry Chain Logic:Steel demand has entered the off-season, and steelinventories remain relatively high. The ferrous industry chain is Macro Sentiment:Iron ore expectations are poor for two reasons. First,the market has revised expectations for a December Fed rate cut, Sentiment for coking coal is even worse. First, domestic policy directionhas shifted: as temperatures fall, coal is transitioning from the “anti-involution” trade to the “guaranteed supply” trade, meaning expectations Delivery Dynamics:The January 2026 iron ore contract (2601) has a basis basis can be fully arbitraged, and combined with steel mills stocking upfor winter, the delivery balance tilts toward the long side. Iron ore Because of the presence of “technology coal,” coking coal shows largediscounts into delivery. Last Friday, Shanxi mid-sulfur primary coking Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. China will on Tuesday reduce its retail prices of gasoline and dieselto reflect recent changes in international oil prices, the country's top Gasoline prices will be cut by 70 yuan (9.88 U.S. dollars) per tonne, and China's three largest oil companies--China National PetroleumCorporation, China Petrochemical Corporation and China National Offshore Under China's current pricing mechanism, the prices of refined oil 2. China's central bank announced on Monday that it will conduct a 1-trillion-yuan (about 141.15 billion U.S. dollars), one-year medium-term The People's Bank of China said the MLF operation will be conducted using a fixed-quantity, interest-rate-bidding and multiple-price-bidding 3. China's total installed power-generating capacity reached 3.75 billionkilowatts (kW) by the end of October, rising 17.3 percent year on year, Solar power capacity continued to drive the expansion, jumping 43.8percent year on year to 1.14 billion kW. Wind power capacity also posted By the end of September this year, China's installed renewable energycapacity had reached nearly 2.2 billion kilowatts, accounting for The country has built the world's largest renewable energy system. In thefirst four years of the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025), China'senergy consumption per unit of gross domestic product dropped by a Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consulting The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solely Disclaimer The information in this report is derived from publicly available sources, but the Company does not guarantee the accuracy,cohesiveness, or reliability of such information. The research, opinions, and forecasts contained in this report reflect theCompany'sjudgment as of the date of the report's release. The prices of the underlying futures analyzed in the report may fluctuate, and past The research services mentioned in this report may not be suitable for individual clients and do not constitute private consulting advice forclients. Clients should consider whether any opinions or suggestions in this report are appropriate when applied to their specific situation.Under no circumstances do the research or opinions expressed in this report constitute investment advice to any individual person. Under Copyright Statement The copyright of this report is solely owned by the Company. Without written permission, no institution or individual may reproduce, copy,publish, or quote this report in any form. If consent is obtained from the Company for citation or publication, it must be used within thepermitted scope, and the source must be indicated as "Guotai Junan Futures Research," along with a reminder of the risks associated Unless otherwise specified, all trademarks, service marks, and logos used in this report are owned by Guotai Junan Futures orare legallyauthorized for use. No individual or institution may use these trademarks, service marks, or logos without the writtenpermission of Guotai