清晨洞察：2025年11月7日

Morning Insight:November 7, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： PTA:The market has once again focused on supply reduction driven by theindustry’s“anti-involution”trend. PTA prices rose yesterday, and themedium-term trend remains relatively strong. Processing margins should beshorted when prices are high. Polyester operating rates remain elevated (91.5%), supporting steady PTAdemand. On the supply side, PTA operating rates have declined in theshort term, with shutdowns at Xinfengming Phase I and INEOS. Domestic PTAoperating rates have fallen to 76.4% (-1.6%). As a result, inventorybuildup pressure eased in early November, with total monthly inventoryincrease expected to remain within 100,000 tons. The spread and basishave stabilized and rebounded, but producers have not significantlyexpanded production cuts, and the inventory accumulation trend remainsclear. Therefore, the upside potential for further positive spread tradesis limited, and range-bound trading remains the main strategy.On the PX front, supply is tightening at the margin. PTA processing margins above 300 yuan per ton should be shorted when prices rise. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025), the number ofChina-Europe freight trains passing through the Erenhot Port, the largestland port between China and Mongolia, has exceeded 15,000, according toHohhot Customs in north China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. As the sole transit port for the "middle corridor" of the China-Europefreight train network, Erenhot now operates 74 routes connecting over 140cities and stations across Asia and Europe. The customs said that the export structure has been optimized, with high-value goods such as automobiles, machinery and electronics accounting formore than 40 percent of shipments. Customs authorities have enhanced efficiency through smart supervisionsystems. "These measures ensure stable growth of the freight trains,"said Li Dawei, a customs official at Erenhot Port. In the first three quarters of this year, the number of inbound andoutbound China-Europe freight trains reached 2,904, a year-on-yearincrease of 11.4 percent, the customs data showed. (Source: Xinhua) 2. The central parity rate of the Chinese currency renminbi, or the yuan,strengthened 36 pips to 7.0865 against the U.S. dollar Thursday,according to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. (Source: Xinhua) Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consultingbusiness in the futures market, as approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (Approval No. [2011]1449). The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If youare not a professional investor among the clients of Guotai Junan Futures, please do not read, subscribe to, or receive anyrelatedinformation from the Company. This report does not constitute a recommendation for any specific business activities,nor should it be considered as any investment, legal, accounting, or tax advice. The Company does not consider the recipientof this report to be an automatic client of the Company. Please make investment decisions based on your own risk toleranceand bear the corresponding investment risks independently. Do not rely on this content for specific investment actions. Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solelyreflects the author(s)' various hypotheses, insights, and analytical methods. The views expressed in this report do not represent the viewsof the Company or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates. This statement is hereby declared. Disclaimer The information in this report is derived from publicly available sources, but the Company does not guarantee the accuracy,cohesiveness, or reliability of such information. The research, opinions, and forecasts contained in this report reflect theCompany'sjudgment as of the date of the report's release. The prices of the underlying futures analyzed in the report may fluctuate, and pastperformance should not be taken as an indicator of future performance. At different times horizons, due to different assumptions andbenchmar