清晨洞察：2025年11月19日

Morning Insight:November 19, 2025 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： MEG:Mid-term Trend Weak; Favor Short Positions; Maintain Inter-month Although synthesis-gas-based MEG units had cut operating rates over theprevious two weeks—dropping from 80% to below 70%—some plants haverecently completed maintenance, and a return of supply is the main trend On the import side, arrivals are around 110,000 tons, slightly lower than In terms of inventory, this Monday saw another 70,000-ton build. Thebasis has gradually fallen to 25–27 yuan/ton, reflecting ample spot December is an off-season, with polyester operating rates declining atthe margin and MEG rigid demand falling. Under an oversupplied market Treasury Futures:The corrective rally has largely run its course, andgoing forward the curve is expected to steepen, with a bias toward range- of correction earlier. The main theme is still that the short end remainsunchanged while the long end fluctuates. At this stage, neither the weak Institutional demand for cash bond allocation still exists, but underregulatory pressure and with more diversified asset choices, it is farweaker than during the same period last year. Toward year-end, Last week, looking at net long positions in Treasury futures byinstitutional type, private funds, foreign investors, and wealthmanagement subsidiaries all edged down slightly, just as the market has Scenario 1: If the equity market rebounds and the stock–bond seesaweffect reemerges, expectations around next year’s Two Sessions will again Scenario 2: After the recent disturbance in funding conditions ends, thebond market continues to repair within a choppy range. At present, Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. China's commerce ministry on Tuesday said that the United States' The comments were made in response to a media inquiry on a memorandumissued by the United States Patent and Trademark Office that revised The move, which was made in the name of "national security," has violatedthe United States' international obligations on intellectual property China will follow all developments closely, and will take necessarymeasures to firmly safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of 2. DJI Agriculture, a Shenzhen-based leader in agricultural drones,announced on Tuesday that its global shipments for 2025 have surpassed China in 2025. The company on Tuesday unveiled three new agricultural drone models--the T100S, T70S, and T55. The flagship T100S can be used in multiple A company representative said that after 13 years of development, DJIAgriculture's agricultural drones now offer a full range of functions-- Globally, DJI Agriculture has expanded to over 100 countries and regions,with impressive development in key markets such as Brazil, Mexico, Shen Xiaojun, head of DJI Agriculture's global marketing department, saidthat the company's shipment volume this year is 100 times that of 10 3. China's top economic planner said Tuesday that it will work to raisethe quality, efficiency and security of the China Railway Express (CR The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) will work to refineregulatory approaches and streamline inspection procedures to enhancetransport efficiency, Zhou Haibing, deputy head of the commission, said The NDRC also plans to further integrate the rail service with trade,manufacturing, logistics and finance to promote high-quality China-Europe As a flagship project of the Belt and Road Initiative, the CR Express has As of October 2025, the CR Express trains connecting China and Europeancities had operated some 118,600 trips, transporting 11.7 million twenty- Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consulting The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solely Disclaimer The information in this report is derived from publicly available sources, but the Company does not guarantee the accuracy,cohesiveness, or reliability of such information. The research, opinions, and forecasts contained in this report reflect theCompany'sjudgment as of the date of the report's release.