清晨洞察：2025年11月17日

Morning Insight:November 17, 2025 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Copper:Short-term upside is limited, but the long-term strategy remains On the macro side, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the temporaryfunding bill, ending the government shutdown and beginning a long restart From a fundamentals perspective, the narrative of tight raw-materialsupply continues to weaken. Scrap copper supply is increasing at the Higher copper prices have been suppressing downstream demand and end-userconsumption, with the operating rates of major copper fabrication In terms of raw-material procurement, downstream and end-user companies strategy: near-term drivers from physical fundamentals are not strong,but the long-term upward logic for copper prices has yet to be disproven. Lithium Carbonate:With mine-side shipments increasing and demand facingrisks of month-on-month weakening, the upside is under pressure.On the demand side, current energy-storage demand remains strong, but In addition, although the market has expectations for a national energy-storage capacity-tariff policy, its demand-pull effect on 2026 is On the supply side, since October 27, Australian mine shipments haveremained above their annual average for three consecutive weeks. Combinedwith Q3 reports, Australian mining companies have significantly improvedrecovery rates, further increasing supply. This incremental volume isexpected to gradually be released by year-end or in Q1 next year.Overall, short-term destocking will continue, but as supply graduallyincreases and power-battery demand enters its seasonal off-peak period,the room for further upside is expected to be limited. Live Hogs:Destocking momentum is emerging, and the reverse-spread Since November, the market has continuously priced in expectations thatcooler weather in the mid-to-late month would boost demand. However, slaughterhouses’early stocking has fallen short of expectations. Thedemand boost from concentrated cured-meat production will occur around From the supply perspective, mid-month group-company sales have shownseveral consecutive days of underperformance, and the pace of hog significantly. Although small farmers are showing reluctance to sell, the price spread between fat hogs and standard hogs has nevertheless shown an unseasonal weakening trend.Losses from holding heavy hogs have widened, and this may drive social-side liquidation in the latter part of the month, marking the beginning of destocking. Spot prices may accelerate downward as a result. In addition, some regions have shown signs of rising proportions ofsmall-weight hogs in slaughter, and as winter temperatures fall, seasonal Equity Index Futures:Consolidation to build a slow bull trend. Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index briefly hit a ten-year high of4,034.08 points on Friday, but ultimately pulled back by the close. Historically, after a sustained rise mainly driven by valuationexpansion, investors’attention shifts to actual earnings during earnings miss expectations, thus leading to pullbacks. According to our overseasteam’s assessment of U.S. equities, although current capex by U.S. tech overseas correction is not a reversal. Domestically, October economic data continued to weaken; ahead of the keyPolitburo meeting in December, market expectations for policy are likelyto turn more positive. Recently, the Ministry of Finance stated that it Overall, the slow-bull trend is expected to continue: advances will not Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. China's outstanding inclusive loans to small and micro businessesreached 36.5 trillion yuan (about 5.2 trillion U.S. dollars) by the end Specifically, outstanding inclusive loans for agriculture-related trillion yuan from the beginning of the year, the data showed. By the end of the third quarter, total RMB and foreign-currency assets of The data also showed that the non-performing loan ratio of the country's 2. Hong Kong's economy staged a robust performance in the third quarterof 2025, with real gross domestic product (GDP) rising 3.8 percent year Presenting the Third Quarter Economic Report 2025, acting HKSARgovernment economist Cecilia Lam said the robust performance was driven Lam said that propelled by strong demand for electronic-related productsand buoyant regional trade flows in Asia, total goods exports continued Domestically, private consumption expenditure picked up slightly ingrowth in the third quarter, rising further by 2.1 percent year on year The Hong Kong economy is expected to have further solid growth for therest of 2025, Lam said, adding that continued increases in inbound 3. The People's Bank of China said Friday that it will conduct an 800-billion-yuan (