清晨洞察：2025年11月3日

Morning Insight:November 3, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Natural Rubber:Weather disruptions, limited downside. Overseas raw material price gains have slowed, with Thai fresh latex at56 THB/kg and cup-lump at 53.3 THB/kg as of last Friday. Meanwhile,external macro positives have largely been priced in, and with the“bootshitting the ground,”rubber prices have seen a pullback. However, in the near term, concentrated rainfall in both domestic andoverseas producing regions is supporting prices. Thailand is being hit byTyphoon Kalmaegi, with heavy rain expected through the 6th, disruptingtapping activities and limiting supply release. Domestically, Yunnan isgradually entering a production-reduction phase due to falling dry-rubbercontent. These raw-material dynamics provide notable support againstfurther price declines. As of October 26, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory stood at1.0389 million tons, down 11,000 tons WoW (–1%), extending the destockingtrend. Deep-colored rubber inventory was 639,000 tons (–0.3%), whilelight-colored rubber inventory was 400,000 tons (–2%). Light-coloredrubber may have a slightly stronger near-term performance than deep-colored grades. On the demand side, semi-steel tire operating rates have declined week-on-week, while all-steel tire operating rates remain relatively stable.We expect rubber futures to consolidate around the 15,000 yuan/ton level.Investors may consider patiently waiting for long opportunities on dips.For suitable investors, selling 14,000-strike put options could be considered, as the probability of a sharp decline in the short termappears low. Methanol: Fundamental pressure remains significant. On the supply side, entering early November, with units restartsconcentrated, methanol daily output has increased significantly comparedwith late October. On the import side, with the positive signals releasedduring the leaders’meeting between China and the U.S. at the Korea APECconference, methanol import logistics issues may see phased reliefafterward. Under the backdrop of still-high overseas operating rates,imported methanol supply remains abundant in the short term. Therefore,domestic methanolsupply remains in a high-supply state in the near term.On the demand side, the MTO industry is facing increasing fundamentalpressure, with industry profits being significantly compressed.Currently, the industry is in a“price-for-volume”phase, whichsuppresses the upside space for methanol. Thus, methanol fundamentals arecurrently driven downward, with inventory pressure and production profitsqueezed. On the macro side, the Fourth Plenary Session and the release of the“15th Five-Year Plan”have been completed, China-U.S. tradeconsultations have seen phased progress, and the late-October Fed ratecut has also landed. Major macro events have largely exhausted short-termpositive effects for risk assets. Therefore, with weakening macro driversand weak industry fundamentals, methanol is operating weakly.Going forward, the main point of focus is whether port cargoes flowingback to inland markets will provide stage-based support for prices. Lithium Carbonate:Watch for trading logic to shift toward decliningtotal demand during the power-battery off-season. On the supply side, at the end of last week, market transactionsindicated that after financial cost negotiations were finalized, theJiajiawo mine will enter the resumption-of-production phase. Combined with the current strength in lithium carbonate prices, this furtherenhances expectations of production recovery. On the demand side, the power-battery sector is about to enter its off-season, and after energy-storage production reaches full capacity,incremental gains are limited and unable to offset the larger sharedecline from power-battery demand. In the short term, we expect prices to enter a correction phase, withoutchanging the long-term bullish outlook for next year. TreasuryFutures:The PBOC’s resumption of bond trading and thematerialization of expectations for the China–U.S. presidential meeting,combined with recently weaker macro data, have improved short-termperformance in the bond market. However, based on inflation expectationsand policy direction, we believe that after a short-term rebound, themarket will still fluctuate with a bearish bias. If we combine the statements in the 15th Five-Year Plan proposalregarding capital markets, direct financing, the central bank, and fiscalpolicy with the State Council’s report on financial-sector work, we cansee the future model and focus of financial work. This will have profoundimplications for the risk-free rate, government bond futures prices, andeven micro-characteristics of government bond futures. (For more details,please refer to the special report“The Impact of the 15th Five-Year Planon Government Bond Futures”.) From a macro-and-micr