清晨洞察：2025年11月26日

Morning Insight:November 26, 2025 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Lithium Carbonate:Intensified Long–Short Battle, Bias Toward Strong Bullish drivers come from three aspects. First, energy-storage demand remains strong and is expected to extend Second, continuous warehouse-receipt cancellations and high apparent Third, downstream purchases were at relatively low levels for about two On the bearish side, first, the public disclosure period for the Yajiangmining rights transfer appraisal report has ended, and the market has Second, overseas mines are improving their extraction rates, and high At present, the long-short tug-of-war is intensifying. Prices areexpected to remain biased to the strong side before early December, with Crude Oil:The Downtrend in Domestic and Overseas Prices Has Not EndedLast night, crude oil prices in both domestic and overseas markets the drop was recovered in the latter half of the night, we believeattention should still be paid to the downside risks in the near term, The core logic mainly includes: First, expectations for Russia–Ukraine peace talks have strengthened, andthe market may price in the recovery of Russian oil supply ahead of time.Second, the market has weakened its view of U.S. military strikes on In addition, we note that global tanker freight rates surged sharply inSeptember–October, with Middle East–Asia TD3C rates tripling andapproaching their 2022 highs. Considering the seasonality of freight-rate Container Shipping Index (Europe route):weak and fluctuating; hold a In the short term, the market’s trading logic is a linear extrapolationbased on last year’s freight trajectory—that is, freight rates peak in On the fundamentals side, unlike last year when large-scale overbookingbegan at the end of November, the market has not reached a“one container this year; however, since October, the market load factor has still Combining capacity-side data, we believe that loading levels in the Because the Lunar New Year falls relatively late, cargo volume isexpected to peak in January 2026, while the January supply-demand For the 2512 contract, Maersk’s opening rate for week 50 was reduced byUSD 300 month-over-month to USD 2,200/FEU. Market freight levels for week50 are expected to be roughly in line with week 47, around USD 2,200– Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. China issued 370 million green electricity certificates in October,bringing its total issuance in the first 10 months of 2025 to 2.478 Of the certificates issued in October, 158 million were classified astradable, accounting for 42.61 percent of the month's total, according to Green electricity is electricity generated from renewable energy sources such as wind, solar or biomass power. Trading activity remained robust last month, with 66.7 million China introduced the green electricity certificate system as a pilotprogram in 2017. In December 2023, the NEA issued an initial batch of The country has built the world's largest clean power system and carbon 2. China's small and medium-sized banks in rural areas have seen steadyexpansion in scale, with their overall growth becoming more stable and As of the end of 2024, their total assets and liabilities had reached57.91 trillion yuan (about 8.18 trillion U.S. dollars) and 53.69 trillion Outstanding loans at these banking institutions accounted for more than 55 percent of their total assets by the end of 2024, with their credit business continuing to focus on the real economy, the report said. The report indicated that rural small and medium-sized banks are embracing multiple strategic opportunities, such as rural revitalization, coordinated regional development, and upgrading consumer spending. They are also confronting practical challenges, including intensifying market competition and lagging digital transformation. They should strengthen risk early warning and internal controls, advancedigital transformation suited to their resource conditions, and speed up 3. China's civil aviation industry recorded a year-on-year increase of The country's monthly air cargo and mail throughput surpassed 900,000 In October, the total transport turnover of the industry reached 14.6 The volume of passenger transport hit 67.84 million, increasing 5.8 In the first 10 months, the industry's total transport turnover increased10.3 percent year on year to 136.63 billion tonne-kilometers. Some 650 Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consulting The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region,