清晨洞察：2025年7月1日

Morning Insight:July 1, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： US Soybeans: Planted Area Below Expectations, but Quarterly Stocks AboveForecast According to the latest report, the planted area figures are as follows:corn at 95.2 million acres (market expected 95.35 million; previous year90.59 million), soybeans at 83.38 million acres (market expected 83.65million; previous year 87.05 million),and wheat at 45.48 million acres(market expected 45.43 million; previous year 46.07 million). As of June 1, total US soybean stocks stood at 1.008 billion bushels(market expected 980 million; previous year 970 million bushels). Coking Coal:The recent synchronized rise in spot and futures prices haslargely stemmed from the continued amplification of earlier“supplyshortage”sentiment. Given that hot metal output remains high, downstream buyers have shownsome restocking interest in cost-effective, scarce coal types. Withthermal coal prices rebounding, demand for coal types like lean coal andsemi-lean coal has also improved. However, market expectations regarding longer-term production capacityhave not changed during this cycle. In other words, once prices rise, therisk of production resumption becomes a key concern. Additionally, withQ3 term contract prices for Mongolian coal already confirmed to belowered, the impact of imported coal is expected to further ease thedomestic coal shortage. In summary, without clear signs of stabilization or recovery inproduction data, sentiment-driven volatility remains a risk. A lightshort position on rebounds is still the preferred strategy. Government Bond Futures:Policy Meeting Triggers Market Pullback, OutlookRemains Range-Bound The bond market saw a pullback this week following the release of the Q22025 Monetary Policy Committee statement by the central bank over theweekend. Notably, the removal of language regarding the possibility of areserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut or interest rate cut lowered marketexpectations for further monetary easing in Q3, creating short-termvolatility in the bond market on Monday. The statement also reflects the central bank’s ongoing focus on inflationtrends and long-term yield movements. This policy signal, combined withthe current macroeconomic backdrop, reinforces the view that the risk-free interest rate is operating within a range—capped by economicfundamentals and supported by policy intervention. In addition, intertemporal spreads had been hovering at low levels,suggesting a latent need for short-term market correction. From a medium-term perspective, inflation may bottom out in the secondhalf of the year, but the magnitude and pace of its recovery are likelyto be limited. As such, we maintain a view of continued range-boundtrading in government bond futures. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China's Ministry of Commerce announced Monday that it would extendanti-dumping duties aimed at stainless steel billets and hot-rolledstainless steel plates and coils imported from the European Union (EU),the United Kingdom (UK), the Republic of Korea(ROK) and Indonesia foranother five years, starting Tuesday. This decision follows an expiry review of anti-dumping measures aimed atthe products initiated in July 2024 at the request of China's domesticindustry. If these anti-dumping measures were terminated, the dumping of stainlesssteel billets and hot-rolled stainless steel plates and coils importedfrom the EU, UK, ROK and Indonesia could continue or recur, potentiallycausing ongoing or renewed harm to China's domestic industry, theministry said. Under the extended measures, anti-dumping duties on the imported productswere set at a range of 23.1 percent to 103.1 percent for the ROK, 43percent for the EU and the UK, and 20.2 percent for Indonesia.Stainless steel billets and hot-rolled stainless steel plates and coilsare widely used in industries such as ships, containers, railways,electric power, petroleum and petrochemicals. (Source: Xinhua) 2. China's finance, taxation, and commerce authorities on Monday unveileda tax incentive granting foreign investors a 10 percent corporate incometax credit on direct domestic investments funded by dividends fromChinese resident companies. The measure, which takes effect from Jan. 1, 2025 through Dec. 31, 2028,allows unused credits to be carried forward and applies lower rates underexisting tax treaties. Eligible investors may reinvest dividends in equity capital increases,new resident enterprise establishments, or acquisitions of residententerprise shares from non-affiliated parties. The industries or sectorsin which the invested enterprise operates must be listed in the Catalogue of Encouraged Industries for Foreign