Morning Insight: December 19, 2025

Morning Insight:December 19, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Coking Coal & Coke:We believe that the upside potential for coal andcoke prices before the Spring Festival is more likely to take the form ofa weak rebound. The recent sharp price increases have not been driven byfundamentals; instead, they have largely been influenced by unverifiedmarket rumors, and the sustainability of the move remains questionable.From a drivers perspective, recent market trading logic has mainlyfocused on the following factors being priced in. First, as contractsapproach delivery, the long–short positioning battle has once againplayed out. Second, the market has revisited the theme of “anti-involution” in the coal sector. Toward year-end, after coal minescomplete their annual production targets, the scope for output recoveryis inherently limited. Tight supply of premium coking coal has causedexpectations and reality to resonate again, amplifying price volatility.Third, there have been market rumors that China Energy (CHN Energy) maysuspend coal imports. Similar disturbances occurred in the first half ofthis year, but the authenticity of the current rumor has not beenconfirmed. Overall, given the recent fundamentals showing a dual-weakness pattern inboth supply and demand, and with limited impetus from winter stockpiling,we believe sentiment-driven factors are more likely to magnify pricevolatility. For earlier calendar spreadpositions (1–5 reverse spreads),gradual profit-taking and exit can be considered. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1.China will enhance regulation over photovoltaic (PV) manufacturingcapacity in 2026, using market and legal measures to phase out outdatedproduction and achieve a better balance between supply and demand, anindustry official said on Thursday. Yang Xudong, an official with the Ministry of Industry and InformationTechnology, described 2026 as a crucial period for strengtheninggovernance in the PV sector. Yang outlined several key tasks for the year ahead, which includeimproving price monitoring mechanisms, strengthening product qualityoversight, boosting innovation-driven development, urging greaterindustry self-discipline, and promoting deeper international cooperation.(Source: Xinhua) 2.Goods entering and leaving the "first line" and "second line" of thecustoms system of Hainan Free Trade Port (FTP) can undergo specialcustoms clearance starting Thursday.Such goods can move through eight "first-line" and 10 "second-line"customs ports across the tropical island. The "first line" refers to Hainan's connection with overseas markets.Meanwhile, the "second line" denotes the customs boundary between theisland and China's mainland. Officials describe the two-tiered special customs system as "freer accessat the first line," referring to freer trade between Hainan and areasoutside China's customs border, and "regulated access at the secondline," which means maintaining standard customs controls for China'smainland.(Source: Xinhua) Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consultingbusiness in the futures market, as approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (Approval No. [2011]1449). The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If youare not a professional investor among the clients of Guotai Junan Futures, please do not read, subscribe to, or receive anyrelatedinformation from the Company. This report does not constitute a recommendation for any specific business activities,nor should it be considered as any investment, legal, accounting, or tax advice. The Company does not consider the recipientof this report to be an automatic client of the Company. Please make investment decisions based on your own risk toleranceand bear the corresponding investment risks independently. Do not rely on this content for specific investment actions. Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solelyreflects the author(s)' various hypotheses, insights, and analytical methods. The views expressed in this report do not represent the viewsof the Company or any of its subsidiaries or affi