清晨洞察：2025年6月19日

Morning Insight:June 19, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtjas.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen028987@gtjas.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Rapeseed Oil:Rapeseed oil futures have surged, driven by the dual impactof rising crude oil prices and bullish expectations from U.S. biodieselpolicy. Since last Wednesday, crude oil prices have climbed sharply dueto escalating tensions in the Middle East. On Friday night, the U.S.Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released a preliminary proposal forits 2026–2027 biodiesel blending mandate, which is expected tosignificantly boost U.S. soybean oil consumption. This news spurred asharp rally in CBOT soybean oil, and under the combined influence of bothfactors, the overall vegetable oil complex has seen sustained gains overthe past week. Among the three major oils, rapeseed oil futures have been the strongestperformer, setting a seven-month high. This strength is partly due toconcerns about reduced domestic rapeseed oil imports in Q3 and thecontinued rise in Canadian rapeseed prices. However, current rapeseed oilfutures prices have already largely priced in expectations of a tighterdomestic supply in Q3. On the global front, expectations for a recoveryin new rapeseed crop supply remain intact, with new harvests expected toenter the market starting at the end of June. From a fundamentalstandpoint, rapeseed oil futures lack a sustainable driver for continuedprice increases. As such, investors should be cautious of potentialpullbacks if sentiment around crude oil and U.S. biodiesel policy beginsto cool. Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil:The impact of geopolitical conflictsand support from peak season demand coexist, and prices may continue tostay high. In the short term, geopolitical conflicts have not eased, andthere remain significant uncertainties around oil product exports andtransportation in the Middle East. As the Middle East is one of theworld’s most important fuel oil production regions, the market’s bullishsentiment toward fuel oil prices is expected to persist. From the fundamentals perspective, it is currently the peak demand seasonfor fuel oil. Due to the overall steady progress in the installation ofdesulfurization units, the share of high-sulfur fuel oil in the marinefuel market continues to rise. Additionally, beyond traditional fuel oilpower generation areas like the Middle East, Egypt may continue topurchase fuel oil as reserve fuel for power generation due to instabilityin Israel’s gas field supply, contributing extra demand for high-sulfurfuel oilpower generation. However, considering that Middle East refinery operating rates maycontinue to recover, with increased spot supply, the strength of high-sulfur fuel oil is expected to ease. If geopolitical conflicts do notescalate further, the upside space for its pricesand cracking margins islimited. Regarding low-sulfur fuel oil, the marine fuel segment continues to beimpacted by high-sulfur fuel oil competition. At the same time, Brazil’sexport volumes have declined month-on-month, and the decrease in arrivalsat Singapore ports will help offset weak demand, providing valuationsupport for Asia-Pacific low-sulfur fuel oil prices. In contrast, with the recovery of major refinery operating rates andrising bonded zone inventories, domestic marine fuel market supply isexpected to be more ample than in overseas markets, and LU (low-sulfurfuel oil) prices may underperform international prices in the near term. Container Freight Index (Europe route):Strong current demand, weakexpectations, short-term sideways market. At the end of June, shipping companies showed structural and regional differences in cargo receipt.Maersk and the Ocean Alliance preferred routes, resulting in a moderatescale of missed shipments at the end of June. PA and MSC were generallyneutral, with some shipping rates loweredin the last week of June.Shipping companies are still managing end-of-month missed shipments.From the fundamentals perspective, July may see increases in both supplyand demand, with capacity rising 1.8% month-on-month, roughly in linewith historical July cargo rebound levels. There is a price declineexpectation for August, with disagreement onthe pattern of freight ratedrops. The August contract faces July’s shipping companies’price hikes and afreight rate pullback after the August peak season. Valuation is hard toanchor, resulting in a temporary fluctuating market. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China has notified the World Trade Organization (WTO) of its expandedzero-tariff policy for least developed countries (LDCs) that maintaindiplomatic relations with Beijing, raising product coverage from 98percent to 100 percent. The new policy, which took effect on Dec. 1, 2024, is part of China'sbroader