清晨洞察：2025年12月24日

Morning Insight:December 24, 2025 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Lithium Carbonate:Bullish expectations for demand have largely beenpriced in, with prices remaining biased to the upside in the near term.The current rally is mainly driven by three factors.First, limitedsupply-side elasticity.The restart timelines of major producers have Overall, we expect the upward shift in the lithium carbonate price centerto remain intact. Going forward, key points to watch include the PVC:Limited upside for the short-term rebound. PVC is currently trading at low valuation levels. Although marketnarratives around “anti-involution,” policy emphasis on stabilizing thereal estate sector, and large-scale profit-taking by short sellers innearby contracts may drive a phase-based rebound in PVC, the upside ofsuch a rebound is likely to be limited. This is mainly because the Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1.China's top housing authority has pledged to stabilize the real-estatemarket, rolling out a package of measures centered on city-specific Speaking at a national conference held in Beijing, Minister of Housingand Urban-Rural Development Ni Hong said key measures include controlling Ni urged local governments to adjust policies as appropriate to better On home sales, Ni emphasized promoting the sale of completed new homes tomitigate delivery risks, and strengthening supervision of advance The ministry will also refine the housing provident fund system and act 2.China unveiled a policy roadmap on Tuesday to accelerate solar thermalpower development, targeting around 15 gigawatts (GW) of installed By 2030, China aims to build the sector into an internationally competitive new energy industry, characterized by globally leading technologies that are fully domestically controllable, alongside market- oriented and industrialized growth, according to thedocument. After years of development, China has achieved significant advancements in major solar thermal technologies and built a leading industrial chain, with construction costs per kilowatt falling from about 30,000 yuan(about 4,253.9 U.S. dollars) a decade ago to around 15,000 yuan. To tackle these obstacles, the document outlines strategies such asdeveloping large-capacity solar thermal plants tailored to regional It also encourages fair market participation by solar thermal power, withprovincial-level regions urged to adopt region-specific pricing The document stresses accelerating research and development in keytechnologies, materials and equipment, supporting leading solar thermal 3.The number of charging piles for electric vehicles (EVs) in Chinaexceeded 19.32 million as of the end of November this year, marking anincrease of 52 percent from a year ago, official data showed on Tuesday. In October, China unveiled a three-year action plan to improve thecountry's EV charging infrastructure, aiming to establish a nationwide Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consulting The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solely Disclaimer The information in this report is derived from publicly available sources, but the Company does not guarantee the accuracy,cohesiveness, or reliability of such information. The research, opinions, and forecasts contained in this report reflect theCompany'sjudgment as of the date of the report's release. The prices of the underlying futures analyzed in the report may fluctuate, and past The research services mentioned in this report may not be suitable for individual clients and do not constitute private consulting advice forclients. Clients should consider whether any opinions or suggestions in this report are appropriate when applied to their specific situation.Under no circumstances do the research or opinions expressed in this report constitute investment advice to any individual person. Under Copyright Statement The copyright of this report is solely owned by the Company. Without written permission, no institution or individual may reproduce, copy,publish, or quote this report in any form. If co