清晨洞察：2025年10月24日

Morning Insight:October 24, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Coking coal:The broader coal sector is supported by multiple bullishfactors, leading to a strong and volatile performance in coking coal.Recently, coking coal futures prices have strengthened again, with spotprices for Mongolian Grade 5 warehouse receipts also rising sharply.From a fundamental perspective, supply-tightening expectations haveintensified under the backdrop of major recent meetings and safetyinspections. In Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, inventories of raw coal andwashed coal continue to decline amid lower production on both a monthlyand yearly basis. On the demand side, bullish sentiment stems from thethermal coal market: early and significant temperature drops in northernChina, coupled with prolonged abnormal heat in eastern and southernregions, have caused asharp, temporary increase in daily powerconsumption at utilities. As a result, northern ports are showing strongprice-holding sentiment, and spot prices have seen a rare streak ofconsecutive gains, reinforcing market optimism toward the broader coalsector. Looking ahead, as the downside space for steel mill profits narrows, therelative strength of coking coal and coke is increasingly reflected intheir erosion of profit margins within other segments of the ferrousindustry chain. Bitumen:In the short term, prices will follow crude oil’s rebound, butfundamental support remains weak—geopolitical variables warrantattention. Since October, bitumen spot prices have been trending downward, with thelargest declines seen in North China and Shandong. Cross-regionalcompetition among branded resources has become pronounced, and refineriesare actively releasing short-term contracts, turning the northern regiononce again into a price depression. At present, Shandong traders areactively selling, but mainly digesting previous inventories, showinglittle willingness to restock. As the peak construction season draws toan end, bearishsentiment on fundamentals has deepened further. The near-month BU contract remains relatively supported by low inventories, butweak expectations continue to weigh on far-month pricing. On the geopolitical front, before the U.S. achieves its interim strategicobjectives, the situation in Venezuela remains tense, and the risk ofgeopolitical premium should be closely watched. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China urges the European Union (EU) to immediately cease listingChinese enterprises in the EU's 19th package of sanctions against Russia,a spokesperson for China's Ministry of Commerce said Thursday in responseto media inquiries. Despite China's repeated negotiations and dissuasion efforts, the EU hasrefused to change course, once again listing Chinese enterprises in its19th package of sanctions against Russia, and imposing sanctions on large Chinese oil refineries and traders for the first time, the spokespersonsaid, expressing China's strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition tothese moves. China has consistently opposed unilateral sanctions that lack a legalbasis in international law or the authorization of the United Nations.The EU's actions run counter to the spirit of the consensus reachedbetween the leaders of China and the EU, seriously undermine bilateraleconomic and trade cooperation, and impact global energy security, thespokesperson said. China urged the EU to immediately stop listing Chinese enterprises insuch sanctions, and warned it against going further down the wrong path.China will take necessary measures to resolutely safeguard the legitimaterights and interests of Chinese enterprises, as well as its energysecurity and economic development, the spokesperson noted. (Source:Xinhua) 2. China's online retail sector maintained steady growth in the firstnine months of this year, supported by the country's efforts to expanddomestic demand and stimulate consumption. During this period, online retail sales rose 9.8 percent year on year,with digital products and online services emerging as key highlights,according to the Ministry of Commerce. Online sales of digital products such as smartphones and computersclimbed 8.3 percent, while spending on online services surged 20.2percent, ministry data showed. E-commerce in rural areas also saw steady growth, with online retailsales of agricultural products up 9.6 percent in the first nine months.Meanwhile, international cooperation in the e-commerce sectorstrengthened, as the retail sales of imported goods on major platformsmonitored by the ministry rose 8.3 percent, data showed. (Source: Xinhua) 3. Sinopec, China's largest oil refiner, announced on Thursday the discovery of a new shale oil reserve estimated at