清晨洞察：2025年10月13日

Morning Insight:October 13, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Live hogs:The market bottom has yet to appear, and the reverse spreadstrategy remains in play. Recently, live hog futures have continued todecline, with the November contract hitting a record low since itslisting. However, the spot market has not yet reached a bottom. Unlike in2021 and 2023, when the downcycle saw effective destocking and a strongrebound in Q4, the current slaughter volume has shown little improvement,limiting the market’s ability to digest excess supply and inventory.Large-scale producers across regions continue to raise heavier hogs, andthe pattern of passive stockpiling persists, indicating that spot pricesstill need to find a floor. In Guangxi, spot prices have fallen to RMB 10.2/kg, and the nationalaverage has dropped below RMB 11/kg. The November contract shows arelatively large premium to the spot market, so attention should be paidto warehouse receipt movements in the low-price zone, with nearbycontracts driven by basis convergence logic. Additionally, restocking sentiment among secondary fatteners has turnedmore positive recently. Although this has not yet led to a rebound inspot prices, the resulting delayed supply increase will eventually weighon the market. If secondary fattening anddelayed slaughter persist, theJanuary contract will also come under pressure. It is advisable tomaintain a preference for the September long position and continueholding a large-scale reverse spread strategy. Stock index futures:Risks have temporarily subsided—neither storm norsunshine. On Monday, the U.S. released another signal of easing tensions,leading to gains in U.S. equity index futures and cryptocurrencies, whichgreatly alleviated pressure on today’s market open. If the situationcontinues to de-escalate, the market will shift from crisis response modeto one driven by its own fundamentals. As we have repeatedly emphasized before, the core driver of the currentrally remains the rise in risk appetite, while risk-control policies andexternal black swan events are the key turning points. Although thisround of trade friction has eased, it hasreminded the market thatexternal risks still linger. For domestic policymakers, it also confirmsthat the measures introduced since late August to cool down the rapidrally are both necessary and reasonable—unchecked valuation expansioncould pose significant risks to financial stability if a black swan eventoccurs. Therefore, after this round of turbulence, the market’s risk appetiteappears to have reached a ceiling. With the current index valuationstanding about one standard deviation above its historical average,further upside requires tangible improvement in fundamentals to absorbvaluation pressure. The market’s previous expectation of a “golden buyingopportunity” following a short-term pullback has been interrupted by theeasing of external risks. Ultimately, the market is likely to return to arelatively calm, range-bound pattern. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China's top market regulator has described its investigation intoQualcomm's unapproved acquisition of Autotalks as a routine lawenforcement activity conducted under the country's anti-monopoly law.According to an official with the State Administration for MarketRegulation (SAMR), the authority intervened although the deal fell belowstandard notification thresholds, as it had evidence the merger couldhave an anti-competitive effect. SAMR notified Qualcomm in writing on March 12, 2024, to file theconcentration for review and not to proceed with the transaction until itwas cleared. Qualcomm stated in a letter two days later that it would abandon thetransaction, but proceeded to complete the acquisition in June 2025without any filing or communication with the regulator, said theofficial. Following new complaints, SAMR verified the facts, which Qualcommacknowledged, leading the regulator to formally open a case for theillegal implementation of a concentration of undertakings. SAMR will continue to advance the investigation in an objective andimpartial manner in accordance with laws and regulations, the officialadded. (Source: Xinhua) 2. A total of 72 batches of import exhibits for the 138th edition of theChina Import and Export Fair, also known as the Canton Fair, with anestimated value of 3.96 million yuan (about 557,370 U.S. dollars), haveentered China between Sept. 16 and Oct. 11, according to GuangzhouCustoms on Saturday. The customs said a further influx of exhibits is expected in the comingdays as the fair approaches. The 138th Canton Fair is scheduled to begin Oct. 15 in Guangzhou, capitalof south China's Guangdong Province, featuring