清晨洞察：2025年10月23日

Morning Insight:October 23, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Crude Oil:Positive factors resonated, leading to a short-term correctiverebound Overnight, international crude oil prices surged nearly 5%, which maydrive a higher opening in the domestic market this morning. From afundamental perspective, multiple bullish factors resonated yesterday,including intensified U.S. sanctions against Russia, U.S. militarystrikes on Venezuela, declines across all categories of U.S. EIA crudeoil inventory data, and a technical rebound from previous lows. In theshort term, prices may remain relatively strong. From a trend perspective, downward pressure on oil prices remainssignificant in the fourth quarter, and new lows may appear around the endof the year. On the supply side, eight core OPEC+ member countries arecontinuing to implement the additional production cuts planned for 2023,resulting in a sharp short-term reduction in their output. Meanwhile,non-OPEC+ producers such as Guyana, Brazil, and Canada are seeingstructural increases in supply due to new projects or the removal ofproduction bottlenecks.More notably, production from Iran, Libya, andVenezuela—countries exempted from the production cut agreement—hasrebounded significantly, with combined output up by roughly 1 millionbarrels per day compared to the same period last year. On the demand side, growth remains sluggish while unexpected shockspersist. The most critical change comes from China: after completing around of restocking, refiners have shifted to inventory drawdowns, leading to a sharp contraction in spot import demand. Additionally, U.S.sanctions on key crude terminals at Rizhao Port in Shandong have dealt aprecise blow, disrupting nearly 1 million barrels per day of trade flowsand potentially forcing major Chineserefineries to reduce operatingrates. Overall, crude oil prices are likely to remain weak in the fourthquarter. However, partial pricing-in of supply-side bearish factors andthe low inventory levels in the U.S. and Europe may limit the pace ofdecline, making corrective rebounds like yesterday’s a recurringphenomenon. From a strategic perspective, short-term positions shouldfavor the long side, while trend positions should remain focused on theshort side, with attention also given to intermonth spread opportunities. Live hogs:After the National Day holiday, spot prices of live hogs fellsharply, with the national average price dropping below 11 yuan perkilogram and prices in low-cost regions falling below 10 yuan perkilogram, driving a steep decline in futures prices. However, the drop inspot prices has stimulated a rebound in pork consumption, leading toincreased volumes of pork cuts entering storage. According to Zhuochuangdata, slaughter volume has risen by about 15% from post-holiday lows.In addition, the widening spread between fattened and standard hog priceshas encouraged farmers to hold back on sales and increased sentimenttoward secondary fattening. Large-scale producers have accelerated theirmarketing pace, shifting from slower tofaster sales, and spot priceshave stabilized and rebounded. Toward the end of the month and early nextmonth, some companies are expected to reduce output, helping marketsentiment stabilize. In the short term, futures prices are likely toenter a consolidation and adjustment phase. From a cyclical perspective, the production expansion phase has not yetended. The current rebound in spot prices is a short-term correctionwithin the broader downtrend. Continued attention should be paid to secondary fattening sentiment and hog weight indicators while waiting forthe next round of price-center drivers. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. Shanghai's imports and exports totaled 3.34 trillion yuan (about 470.7billion U.S. dollars) in the first three quarters of 2025, up 5.4 percentyear on year, local customs authorities said on Wednesday. The growth rate increased by 0.9 percentage points compared to the Jan.-Aug. period. Exports in the first nine months climbed 11.3 percent to1.48 trillion yuan, while imports rose 1.1 percent to 1.86 trillion yuan,according to data from Shanghai Customs. In September alone, the financial hub's foreign trade hit 405.9 billionyuan, up 12.5 percent from a year earlier. Private enterprises played a key role in contributing to the growth, withtheir imports and exports surging 27.1 percent to 1.32 trillion yuan.Their share in the city's total foreign trade reached a record 39.5percent. Shanghai's trade with emerging markets showed strong momentum during theperiod, as its trade with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN), the Middle East, and Africa saw increases of 12.5, 22.9 and 32