清晨洞察：2025年9月23日

Morning Insight:September 23, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Urea: The trend is weak, and within the week the focus is on when pricecuts for pre-holiday order-taking will be released in volume. From thefundamentals, although exports are accelerating, traders’earlierstocking is sufficient, so the price-driving effect is expected to belimited. On the domestic demand side, weak demand is currently the maincontradiction. The expected export increase cannot offset weakeningdomestic demand, while compound fertilizer and industrial demand remainsluggish, also providing limited price support. Thus, the mid-term trendis under pressure. From a valuation perspective, gas-based producers’production costs are temporarily unable to effectively support prices.Therefore, as export policies gradually become clear, urea’s lowervaluation will gradually probe down to the fixed-bed unit cash cost lineof northern factories. Overall, before the National Day holiday there maybe repeated rounds of price-cut promotions for order-taking, but thelogic of a weak mid-term trend remains unchanged. CBOT Soybeans: Argentina temporarily exempts export tariffs, increasingpressure on U.S. soybean exports. On September 22, the Argentinegovernment announced the temporary suspension of export tariffs onsoybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal, corn, and wheatuntil October 31,with potential export volumes reaching USD 7 billion. Affected by thisnews, U.S. soybean prices fell, with overnight CBOT soybeans down 14.75cents/bu to 1010.75 cents/bu. Currently, Argentina’s soybean export tariff is 26%, and soybean oil and soybean meal export tariffs are 24.5%.With rates reduced to 0, Argentine agricultural products will be highlycompetitive, further increasing U.S. soybean export pressure, which isalready weighed down by a lack of Chinese buying. At present, U.S. soybeans are in the harvest stage, with overall progressat 9%, slower than the past two years. Crop conditions are rated 61%good-to-excellent—below expectations but with harvested areas showinggood yields, U.S. soybeans are still likely to see a bumper crop. Lookingahead, CBOT soybeans remain rangebound: global supply is ample and thereis no basis for a bull market. At the same time, as prices approachBrazil’s planting costs, further sharp declines will be difficult.Moreover, Argentine farmers prefer to hold physical crops as a hedgeagainst inflation, meaning the actual volume that can flow into theglobal market is limited, with the impact more reflected as a sentiment-driven shock. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. The People's Bank of China (PBOC), which is the country's centralbank, on Monday conducted 300 billion yuan (about 41.2 billion U.S.dollars) of 14-day reverse repos, in the first such operation since itadjusted the tool's bidding rules last week. The operation was carried out through fixed-volume, interest rate tenderswith multiple bid prices, the PBOC said. The central bank last week changed the bidding mechanism for 14-day reverse repos from a single bid price to multiple bid prices. The moveallows institutions greater flexibility in market-based pricing andbetter reflects their differentiated funding needs. The PBOC typically launches 14-day reverse repos ahead of major holidayssuch as the National Day holiday and the Spring Festival to injectliquidity into the banking system. "The launch of the 14-day reverse repo came slightly earlier than it hasin previous years, helping ensure stable liquidity through to the end ofthe quarter and the holiday period, and reflecting a moderately loosemonetary policy stance," said Wang Qing,chief macro analyst at GoldenCredit Rating. Wang added that the move is a further refinement of the central bank'sliquidity management toolbox and reinforces the policy role of the seven-day reverse repo rate. In addition to the 14-day operation, the central bank also conducted240.5 billion yuan of seven-day reverse repos on Monday through fixed-rate, volume tenders. A reverse repo is a process in which the central bank purchasessecurities from commercial banks through a bidding process, with anagreement to sell them back in the future. (Source: Xinhua) A total of 2 tonnes of allowances were transacted on Monday with aturnover of 63.7 yuan. The allowances, officially known as Guangdong Emissions Allowances(GDEA), are carbon dioxide emissions caps assigned to companies. Firmswhose emissions surpass their share must buy extra quotas fromauthorities or purchase unused quotas on the market from those that causeless pollution. Since its opening in December 2013, the market has traded more than 231.9 million tonnes of GDEA, with a total turnover of about 6.74 bi