清晨洞察：2025年10月30日

Morning Insight:October 30, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Coking Coal:Supported by both macro factors and sector themes, pricesare showing a strong and volatile trend. The previously tighteningupstream fundamentals have provided solid support for spot coking coalprices, which remain robust. Recently, trading activity inthe spotmarket has stayed lively, and with the second round of coke price hikesalready implemented, expectations for a third round are rising, drivingauction prices for coking coal sharply higher. In addition, the recent market strength also reflects improvedmacroeconomic expectations and renewed enthusiasm for the“anti-involution”investment theme. Following the release of the 15th Five-YearPlan proposals, market confidence in overall demand prospects and relatedindustrial reforms has strengthened. This has further fueled speculativeinterest in coking coal as part of the“anti-involution”thematic trade.Looking ahead, investors are advised to continue monitoring thepersistent contraction in steel mill margins downstream and the recentsoftening of thermal coal spot prices, both of which may limit the upsidepotential for coking coal in the future. Live Hogs:The near-term correction has not yet ended, and medium-termweakness is becoming apparent. In mid-October, cooler temperaturescombined with falling prices spurred a rapid rebound in downstreamdemand, leading to increased pork processing and storage. Thisstimulated farmers’reluctance to sell and encouraged enthusiasm among secondaryfattening groups, pushing spot prices continuously higher. As large-scale producers accelerated their slaughter pace and overallmarket confidence recovered after the National Day holiday, thelikelihood of panic selling has declined. With relatively light slaughterpressure expected in November and strong price control capability amongmajor producers, spot prices are projected to enter a short-termconsolidation phase. However, as profitability returns in the near term, the industry facesgrowing pressure from the production cycle perspective. The stabilizationof piglet prices will likely stimulate increased hedging demand forforward contracts, as companies lock in breeding profits early throughthe futures market. A new round of forward industrial pricing logic istherefore expected to begin. Container Freight Index (Europe Route):Watch for the risk of a pullbackafter recent gains. The Europe line rose yesterday, driven by Maersk’s announcement of a$300/FEU peak season surcharge (PSS) on the route. The market expectsMaersk to continue supporting its FAK (Freight All Kinds) rates into lateNovember. In addition, the recent softening of the U.S. stance on tariffstoward China has improved overall macro sentiment. Fundamentally, part of the cargo volume expected for November has alreadybeen shipped early at the end of October due to expectations of pricehikes. The key will be to observe the strength of bookings and rolloversin Week 46. On the port side, congestion in Northwest Europe continues,and over the next 1–2 weeks, attention should be paid to whether vesseldelays caused by congestion will lead to a marginal reduction inavailable capacity for Weeks 47–50. From a pricing standpoint, the PSS increase has solidified the floor forlong-term contract rates, providing support for FAK levels. The Dec 2025(2512) contract, currently corresponding to $2,600/FEU, is based on an early November FAK average of $2,100–2,200/FEU, having already fullypriced in November’s announced hikes and partially front-loadedexpectations for December increases. On a monthly basis, whether theDecember capacity supports further price increases will be crucial. IfDecember capacity growth remains limited, the 2512 contract valuationcould be revised upward to 2,050–2,150 points (equivalent to $2,900–3,000/FEU). Strategy: If the market has already fully priced in December rate hikesahead of time, consider taking profits on the 2512 contract at highlevels. For the 2604 contract (April 2026), maintain a sell-on-rallystrategy on a quarterly basis. Stock Index Futures:Bullish catalysts gradually priced in, consolidationlikely while awaiting new drivers. Recently, the market has been steadily trending upward, supported by aseries of positive developments that have lifted risk appetite and pushedindex levels higher. Domestically, the conclusion of the Fourth Plenary Session and therelease of the“15th Five-Year Plan”proposal reflect a proactive stancetoward economic growth over the next five years. The focus on developingthe real economy and advancing new productive forces is expected tosupport high-quality and sustainable growth, thereby stabilizingmacroeconomicexpectations. Externally, the upcoming meeting between the Chinese and U.S. presidentsat the APEC summit has raised hopes for progress toward a tradeagreement, while ea