清晨洞察：2026年1月7日

Morning Insight:January 7, 2026 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Copper:Driven by Multiple Expectations, Copper Prices StrengthenSupply-side factors: Continued global geopolitical instability hasheightened concerns over copper supply. Trump's announcement that U.S. Demand-side factors: Long-term expectations for copper demand recoveryremain robust, with consumption logic for emerging sectors like AIcomputing centers continuously strengthening. The construction of AI demand for electricity, copper, aluminum, and other metals. Additionally,the new energy sector, Europe's grid upgrades, and demand growth in Overall outlook: Based on long-term fundamental optimism, copper prices Ferrosilicon:Market Sentiment Drives Rally, Prices Volatile with Upward Contract prices have fluctuated higher during the session, brieflytouching 5,800 CNY/ton and breaking through the previous high range. This The market is reacting to concerns that electricity costs for certainrestricted furnace types in a major production province may rise in the Field surveys suggest that some factories operate larger furnaces thanofficially reported, often with self-owned power plants and integratedmagnesium production facilities. The actual impact of the policy will tightness materializes. Caution is advised as market focus may shift back Container Shipping Index (Europe Route):February Premium-Driven Rally,Distant Months Focus on Premium and Geopolitical DevelopmentsThe 2602 contract’s market dynamics are primarily centered on valuation:Spot freight rates in the fourth week of January show signs of peaking.Based on current static quotes—Maersk $2,800, MSC $3,140, OA $3,070, PA$2,600 per FEU—the average FAK rate is approximately $2,900 per FEU,which translates to an SCFIS index range of around 2,080–2,150 points As for the 2610 contract, escalating risks in the Middle East have routes. Recent price rebounds have been driven mainly by short-covering.In the short term, attention should be paid to speculative fund flows, Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange has announced that itwill expand high-level institutional opening-up and deepen facilitationreforms in the foreign exchange sector this year, according to the The administration will also support financial institutions to develop It will roll out policies governing outbound lending and domestic foreigncurrency loan management, and implement its integrated cross-border fund Efforts will also be made to reinforce foreign exchange regulation and 2. China invested over 1.28 trillion yuan (about 182.4 billion U.S.dollars) in the construction of water conservancy facilities in 2025, A total of 47,563 water conservancy projects were undertaken last year,creating 3.15 million jobs nationwide, Minister of Water Resources Li China continuously enhanced its flood and drought disaster preventionsystem, successfully managing 913 river floods that exceeded warning The China Water Exchange recorded some 14,000 transactions with a totalwater volume of 1.61 billion cubic meters--a record high. This Li emphasized the need to promote high-quality development in waterconservancy, safeguard national water security, and make contributions to 3. China's central bank on Tuesday said that it will continue toimplement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, using tools such as The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will position high-quality economicdevelopment and a reasonable rebound in prices as key monetary policy Efforts will be made to keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a The PBOC will step up financial support for key areas such as domesticdemand expansion, technological innovation, and micro, small and medium-sized enterprises. It will also make effective use of refinancing toolsfor services consumption and elderly careto drive increased creditallocation in the services consumption sector. Among other priorities, the central bank highlighted the need to containfinancial risks in key sectors, with plans in place to establish a The PBOC will deepen financial reform and opening-up, promote reforms inglobal financial governance, and enhance its financial management and Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consultingbusiness in the futures market, as approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (Approval No. [2011]1449). The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restrictin