早晨洞察：2026年1月8日

Morning Insight:January 8, 2026 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Naphtha:Recently, discussions have increased around the potentialimposition of a consumption tax on the circulation of domestic naphtha.If implemented, this measure would directly raise operating costs fordomestic ethylene cracking units, and there have already been market previously approved capacity expansions, leading to shifts in marketexpectations regarding guaranteed supply capacity. In addition, from avaluation standpoint, prices across the ferrous complex had previously Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. China aims to achieve secure and reliable supply of key coreartificial intelligence (AI) technologies by 2027, with its industrial The plan, jointly issued by eight departments including the Ministry ofIndustry and Information Technology, the Cyberspace Administration of By 2027, the plan targets the deep application of three to five general-purpose large AI models in manufacturing, the development of specialized, It also aims to cultivate two to three globally influential ecosystem-leading enterprises, a batch of specialized and sophisticated small and Furthermore, China plans to build a world-leading open-source ecosystem, enhance security governance capabilities, and contribute Chinese The document outlines measures including promoting the coordinateddevelopment of AI chips' hardware and software, supporting innovations in The plan also emphasizes making breakthroughs in key technologies such as 2. The People's Bank of China (PBOC), the country's central bank,announced Wednesday that it will conduct a 1.1-trillion-yuan (about 157 The operation will be carried out with a fixed quantity through interest- As 1.1 trillion yuan of three-month outright reverse repos are set to Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Golden Credit Rating, believes that themove indicates a continuation of supportive monetary policy, which Outright reverse repo operations--a tool the central bank introduced inOctober 2024 to manage liquidity in the national banking system--are These operations have enriched the country's monetary policy toolkit,complementing previous measures such as temporary repos, temporary Xinhua) 3. China's foreign exchange reserves totaled 3.3579 trillion U.S. dollarsat the end of December 2025, marking an increase of 11.5 billion U.S. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange stated that the U.S. dollarindex declined and global financial asset prices saw mixed movements last Driven by exchange rate conversions and changes in asset prices, China's Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consultingbusiness in the futures market, as approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (Approval No. [2011]1449). The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solely Disclaimer The information in this report is derived from publicly available sources, but the Company does not guarantee the accuracy,cohesiveness, or reliability of such information. The research, opinions, and forecasts contained in this report reflect theCompany'sjudgment as of the date of the report's release. The prices of the underlying futures analyzed in the report may fluctuate, and past The research services mentioned in this report may not be suitable for individual clients and do not constitute private consulting advice forclients. Clients should consider whether any opinions or suggestions in this report are appropriate when applied to their specific situation.Under no circumstances do the research or opinions expressed in this report constitute investment advice to any individual person. Under Copyright Statement The copyright of this report is solely owned by the Company. Without written permission, no institution or individual may reproduce, copy,publish, or quote this report in any form. If consent is obtained from the Company for citation or publication, it must be used within thepermitted scope, and the source must be indicated as "Guotai Junan Futures Research," along with a reminder of the risks associated Unless