晨间洞察：2026年4月8日

Morning Insight:April 8, 2026 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： MEG: Oil-led pullback in the short term; medium-term trend remains firm, A two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran is expected to allow partialreopening of transit through theStrait of Hormuz over the same period. On the supply side, domestic operating conditions have tightened, withSinochem Quanzhou shutting down unexpectedly and Far Eastern reducingoperating rates, bringing overall domestic utilization down to 63.8% (-2%). Coal-based units saw both maintenance and restarts, with overall together with reduced imports, should drive a rapid drawdown in domestic On the demand side, polyester operating rates are at 86.5% (-0.3%), whilethe grey fabric segment remains under pressure, with negative margins Overall, MEG is expected to undergo a short-term correction following thepullback in crude, but fundamentals remain supportive in the medium term. Polyolefins: Post-holiday rally driven by escalating Middle Eastdisruptions; supply shocks turn structural, supporting a firm bias Polyolefins surged sharply after the holiday, primarily driven by thecontinued spillover of Middle East geopolitical tensions. Petrochemicalfacilities inJubail Industrial City,Ruwais Industrial Complex, and key In addition, domestic refinery and cracker run cuts in April are beingtransmitted downstream, with operating rate centers for PE and PPexpected to decline to below 75% and 65%, respectively. The contraction gradually depleted and supply continues to tighten, inventories acrossthe upstream and downstream chain are expected to draw down in April, Overall, with supply disruptions persisting, PE and PP are expected tomaintain a firm bias. The key focus remains on the magnitude of supply Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1.China on Tuesday put its deepest offshore wind farm into full-capacityoperation, marking breakthroughs in deep-water construction, large-scale The project is located roughly 70 kilometers off the northern coast ofeast China's Shandong Peninsula in the northern Yellow Sea. Situated in It has a total installed capacity of 504 megawatts, featuring 42 sets of12-megawatt wind turbines. At full capacity, the wind farm will generateapproximately 1.7 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually, which This project also adopted high-precision positioning technology developedon the basis of China's homegrown BeiDou Satellite Navigation System, With vast onshore wind farms across its northern and western regions andrapidly expanding offshore projects along the eastern coastline, China's China's newly installed and cumulative offshore wind power capacity bothaccounted for more than half of the global total, according to data (Source: Xinhua) 2.China's foreign exchange reserves stood at 3.3421 trillion U.S.dollars at the end of March 2026, down 85.7 billion dollars, or 2.5 The combined effects of exchange rate conversion and changes in asset China's economy registered steady and improving performance during theperiod, with new and higher-quality development momentum. Its steady foreign exchange reserves basically stable, according to the 3.China will continue to implement control measures regarding retailprices of gasoline and diesel from Wednesday, aiming to mitigate the Since the adjustment of domestic oil prices in late March, internationalcrude oil prices have experienced significant fluctuations, the National Based on the existing pricing mechanism, gasoline and diesel prices wouldhave risen by 800 yuan (about 116 U.S. dollars) and 770 yuan per tonne,respectively. Thanks to the control measures, these prices will from Relevant authorities should intensify their market supervision andinspection efforts. They should implement strict measures to crack down Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consultingbusiness in the futures market, as approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (Approval No. [2011]1449). The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solely Disclaimer The information in this report is