Morning Insight: March 23, 2026

Morning Insight:March 23, 2026 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： MEG:Tightening imports and declining port inventories; outright biasremains firm. Bullish calendar spreads (long nearby vs. deferred)On the supply side, significant run cuts at naphtha cracking units haveled to a decline in domestic MEG operating rates from 80% to 66%.Overseas, multiple MEG units in Kuwait and Iran have been shut down.Meanwhile, disruptions to transit through the Strait of Hormuz and theBab el-Mandeb Strait are constraining logistics, with import arrivalsexpected to decline at an accelerated pace starting this week. On the demand side, polyester operating rates stand at 87.6% (+0.4%).While polyester margins remain broadly acceptable, production and saleshave been sluggish, and downstream order intake is moderate. With theQingming Festival approaching, more plants are expected to suspendoperations for the holiday period. From a valuation perspective, profitability across production routes(coal-based vs. oil-based) continues to diverge. Strategy wise, we recommend maintaining range trading on the outrightbetween RMB 4,500–6,000, and favor a bullish May–September calendarspread. Polyolefins:Strong performance with >4% gains in Friday night session;supply disruptions drive upside, though demand-side transmission lagsPolyolefins rallied more than 4% in Friday’s night session, showingnotable strength. Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to provide strong cost support via crude oil, with olefinsoutperforming overnight. This is primarily due to ongoing disruptions inthe transportation of feedstocks such as naphtha and propane, reinforcingexpectations of supply losses. On Friday,widespread run cuts wereobserved across naphtha cracking units and downstream derivatives, withmultiple facilities—including Sino-UK, Sino-Saudi, Sino-Korean jointventures, and Yangzi Petrochemical—operating at reduced rates.From a valuation perspective, upstream monomer prices previously outpaceddownstream derivatives, pushing margins for oil-based polyolefinproduction to historical lows. As derivative production cuts aregradually implemented, polyolefins are seeing catch-up gains, driven bymargin restoration. On the arbitrage front, export windows remain open. Supply losses aremore pronounced in Southeast Asia and South Asia, attracting continuedexports and re-exports of plastics and PP cargoes. However, as cost and supply-side disruptions are progressively priced in,domestic demand remains relatively subdued. Although the market iscurrently in the peak agricultural demand season, excessive volatility infeedstock prices has negatively impacteddownstream order intake andproduction stability. Cost pass-through to end-users will take time, andsluggish spot circulation has led to softer upstream quotations,continuously offering delivery margins. As a result, futures prices have been choppy, with calendar spreadsnarrowing modestly. Geopolitically driven disruptions to chemical feedstock logistics remainongoing. PP and PE are expected to maintain a firm bias, with key focuson inventory dynamics under supply contraction and the pace of pricetransmission to new downstream orders. Synthetic Rubber:Near-term strength expected in BR; geopolitical premiumand cost push dominate In the near term, butadiene rubber (BR) is expected to maintain a firm upward bias. From a geopolitical perspective, ongoing tensions in theMiddle East are likely to sustain a valuation premium across the energyand chemical complex. Fundamentally, international butadiene prices remain elevated, supportedby strong export arbitrage margins. In addition, visible inventories ofbutadiene have declined, and speculative activity has further lifted thecost base across the synthetic rubbervalue chain. At the BR segment, margins have been significantly compressed, promptinglarge-scale production cuts. This has led to a reduction in freelycirculating supply. Overall, BR prices are expected to remain firm. However, geopoliticaldevelopments may significantly increase intraday volatility, with tradingdynamics highly sensitive to news flow. Investors are advised to maintainstrict risk management. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China's fiscal policy will place greater emphasis on openness andshared benefits over the next five years, allowing countries worldwide toshare in its development opportunities, Minister of Finance Lan Fo'ansaid on Sunday. Against a backdrop of subdued global economic momentum, China will pursuea proactive fiscal policy at home while strengthening internationalfinancial cooperation to inject greater stability and positive energy into the global economy, Lan sai