晨间洞察：2026年3月3日

Morning Insight:March 3, 2026 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Chemicals:Driven by rising geopolitical risk premiums, domestic chemicalfutures hit widespread limit-up moves. Given Iran’s and the broaderMiddle East’s critical role in global chemical supply, both China andAsia face potential risks of import disruptions. However, yesterdaymorning the sector initially traded relatively calmly. The real triggercame when Asian refineries, concerned about possible short-term benzene/styrene chain, tight nearby spot supply and reduced output havelifted benzene valuations, while post-holiday downstream performance hasbeen relatively firm. Although deferred-month styrene margins still face As overseas shocks expand, there is a possibility that domestic“anti-involution”policies, such as differentiated electricity pricing, couldbe delayed in implementation due to geopolitical considerations. From a Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. Hong Kong's stock market ended lower Monday with the benchmark Hang 2. China's State Taxation Administration on Monday unveiled the outcomesof key initiatives carried out in 2025, designed to build a unified A core component of these initiatives was strict governance of unlawfultax practices tied to local investment incentives, with a disciplinaryrule enforced that prevented local tax authorities from participating in To level the playing field between online and offline businesses,authorities last year implemented new regulations on tax information Significant progress was also made last year in streamlining cross-regional tax services, cutting average processing times by five to 10 labor in line with market demand. The administration has pledged to continue its campaign against illegaltax practices, with the goal of rectifying disorderly competition to 3. The central parity rate of the Chinese currency renminbi, or the yuan, Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consulting The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solely Disclaimer The information in this report is derived from publicly available sources, but the Company does not guarantee the accuracy,cohesiveness, or reliability of such information. The research, opinions, and forecasts contained in this report reflect theCompany'sjudgment as of the date of the report's release. The prices of the underlying futures analyzed in the report may fluctuate, and past The research services mentioned in this report may not be suitable for individual clients and do not constitute private consulting advice forclients. Clients should consider whether any opinions or suggestions in this report are appropriate when applied to their specific situation.Under no circumstances do the research or opinions expressed in this report constitute investment advice to any individual person. Under Copyright Statement The copyright of this report is solely owned by the Company. Without written permission, no institution or individual may reproduce, copy,publish, or quote this report in any form. If consent is obtained from the Company for citation or publication, it must be used within thepermitted scope, and the source must be indicated as "Guotai Junan Futures Research," along with a reminder of the risks associated Unless otherwise specified, all trademarks, service marks, and logos used in this report are owned by Guotai Junan Futures orare legallyauthorized for use. No individual or institution may use these trademarks, service marks, or logos without the writtenpermission of Guotai