晨间洞察：2026年3月20日

Morning Insight:March 20, 2026 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Aluminum: Macro headwinds temporarily offset overseas supply concerns Since the escalation of the Iran-related tensions, although actualtransit through the Strait remains constrained—due to persistent issuessuch as elevated shipping insurance costs and weak fleet confidence So far this week, rising overseas interest rates, shifting expectationsaround the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle, and the strengthening US However, a clear divergence has emerged between outright prices and thephysical market. Spot premiums remain elevated: Japan MJP and structure. Tightness in overseas physical markets warrants close Domestically, SMM spot discounts in East and South China have remainedrelatively stable. There are reports of some traders purchasing physical Looking ahead, the period from this weekend into early next week will becritical. If further force majeure events disrupt Middle Eastern primary Gold & Silver: Accelerated sell-off; liquidity tightening dominates pricing Precious metals have declined sharply in recent sessions. Offshore goldhas dropped to around USD 4,500/oz, while silver has retraced to near USD The continued disruption of transit through theStrait of Hormuz has ledmarkets to increasingly price in disruptive inflation risks. However, We interpret that, as assets which previously experienced significantgains and elevated volatility, gold and silver have become primary by strong earnings or extensive options hedging structures—making the From a strategy perspective, our previously recommended long gold–silver Looking ahead, sentiment has been rapidly flushed out in the short term,with both gold and silver retreating to key support levels. However, the We maintain a bearish bias on silver, while for gold, a more tacticalapproach is warranted—either selectively buying on dips or staying LPG: Extreme supply disruptions drive synchronized rally across domestic Recently, the global LPG market has entered a bullish phase dominated bysupply-side shocks. In the Middle East, the world’s largest gas field,South Pars Gas Field, was first attacked, followed by a missile strike on In the US, a compressor failure atTarga Resources has delayed exports by7–10 days. With US Gulf Coast export capacity already running near full From an Asian perspective, despite weakening petrochemical demand—driven by feedstock shortages at domestic PDH units (with operating ratespotentially falling below 50% in April) and widespread shutdowns atoverseas crackers—residential demand in regions such as India remains As of this afternoon’s close, the Shandong residential LPG basis haswidened to around-600 RMB/tonne, indicating a tangible likelihood of Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1.China's fiscal revenue edged up 0.7 percent year on year to nearly4.42 trillion yuan (about 640.81 billion U.S. dollars) in the first two The central government collected approximately 1.92 trillion yuan infiscal revenue during the period, down 1.7 percent year on year, and In the first two months, the country's tax revenue totaled 3.64 trillion yuan, edging up 0.1 percent year on year, while its non-tax revenue rose China's fiscal expenditure expanded 3.6 percent year on year to 4.67trillion yuan during the period. The central government's fiscal Spending on social security and employment came in at 927.9 billion yuan,up 8.6 percent. Health expenditure stood at 411.9 billion yuan, up 17.3 2.Chinese authorities have revealed plans to strengthen both pricemonitoring and cost investigations in further efforts to regulate As part of these endeavors, authorities will also seek to regulateautomotive finance policies and maintain long-term efforts to crack down During the symposium, authorities also called for intensified efforts toshore up weak links in the automotive chips and basic software sectors, The symposium further outlined other priorities in terms of theindustry's development, particularly expansion of automobile consumption. China has been the world's largest NEV market for 11 straight years. In2025, NEV production and sales totaled 16.63 million and 16.49 million units, respectively, marking respective year-on-year increases of 29 3.Chinese stocks opened lower on Thursday, with the benchmark Shanghai Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consultingbusiness in the futures market, as approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (Approval No. [2011]1449). The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate an