Morning Insight：March 5，2026

Morning Insight:March 5, 2026 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Crude oil:Continue to monitor upside risks, with the domestic–overseasspread potentially widening again. Yesterday, international crude prices fluctuated at elevated levels. Slight easing in geopolitical tensions combined with asset rotation ledto a modest pullback at one point. However, we believe that upside risksto oil prices have not been eliminated. Fundamentally, large-scaledisruptions around the Strait of Hormuz remain ongoing. Even ifhostilities subside, cautious fleet sentiment and extremely highinsurance premiums could continue to significantly influence freightcosts and supply expectations. Ifno signals of negotiations emergewithin a week among the United States, Israel, and Iran, Brent may havethe opportunity to test the USD 85–90 per barrel range. We have also observed that SC crude has recently outperformed overseasbenchmarks. Given persistently high freight rates and currently lowwarehouse warrant levels, the April SC contract faces certain deliverypressures, warranting close attention to further upside risks. Over themedium to long term, Brazilian Tupi crude is also eligible for SCdelivery, but this will require patience while waiting for freight ratesto decline. In terms of strategy, maintaining long positions in both domestic andoverseas crude, as well as holding bull spreads, remains appropriate.Strategies such as long SC versus short Brent and long SC versus shortDubai may continue to be considered. That said, given the inherent complexity of geopolitical developments andthe potential economic backlash from sustained oil price spikes,volatility may expand again. Investors should remain vigilant and managerisk carefully. Equity index futures:Focus on stabilization expectations around theupcoming Two Sessions. Recently, stock indices have seen increasedvolatility and deeper corrections, driven mainly by several factors.First, the war has weighed on risk appetite, with non-U.S. equity indicesshowing notable declines, reinforcing bearish sentiment. Second, risingoil prices have lifted inflation expectations, thereby constraining roomfor accommodative monetary policy. Third, the military and intelligencecapabilities demonstrated by the United States in this operation haveadded a layer of pessimism to the geopolitical landscape. Fourth, AI andtechnology sectors have also retreated in tandem with declining riskappetite and tightening liquidity conditions, resulting in a lack ofbroad-based profit-making opportunities across the market. Looking ahead, the sustainability of the conflict will remain the mostdirect driver. Overnight, U.S. equities and major commodities havetemporarily stabilized, which may help improve risk sentiment. On thedomestic front, policy countercyclical efforts will be key. For instance,the National People’s Congress is set to convene, and the government workreport will clarify this year’s core economic growth targets, along withfiscal, monetary, and other key policy directions. If these signals helprepair market sentiment, they could serve as potential catalysts forstabilization. Overall, after the recent pronounced correction, the market may see atechnical rebound if supportive internal signals and external positivesemerge. However, the drivers for a renewed sustained uptrend remaininsufficient at this stage. A range-trading approach is recommended fornow. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China will strengthen risk prevention and mitigation in key areas thisyear, according to a government work report submitted Thursday to thecountry's top legislature for deliberation. The country will work to stabilize the real estate market, take activeand well-ordered measures to defuse local government debt risks, as wellas take active and prudent steps to defuse financial risks, said thereport. (Source: Xinhua) 2. China will nurture emerging industries and industries of the future,according to a government work report submitted Thursday to the country'stop legislature for deliberation. In 2026, the country will foster emerging pillar industries such asintegrated circuits, aviation and aerospace, biomedicine, and the low-altitude economy, according to the report.China will nurture industries of the future such as future energy,quantum technology, embodied artificial intelligence, brain-computerinterfaces, and 6G technology, the report said. (Source: Xinhua) 3. China will boost imports to promote balanced trade in 2026, accordingto a government work report submitted Thursday to the country's toplegislature for deliberation. (Source: Xinhua) Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualifie