晨间洞察：2026年3月19日

Morning Insight:March 19, 2026 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Methanol:Escalating geopolitical tensions are supporting a strongerprice trend. From a fundamentals perspective, domestic methanol On the port side, imports—particularly from the Middle East—are expectedto decline significantly starting in April. This expectation is based on With shrinking import volumes, even after considering potential inlandcargo flows to ports and some demand reduction due to negative feedback Overall, methanol prices are currently characterized by wide intradayvolatility with a gradually rising price center. Under the backdrop of Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil (LSFO):Supply gaps domestically and overseas; Supply shortages are emerging both domestically and internationally,supporting continued strength in LSFO prices. On the one hand, On the other hand, in the domestic market, reduced crude exports from theMiddle East have forced independent (“teapot”) refiners to cut operatingrates. As major state-owned refiners step in to fill the gap in refinedproduct output, more low-sulfur residue components are diverted into Live Hogs:Valuation reset, lower price center We believe the market is still in a bottoming phase characterized by therealization of capacity expansion and a transition from inventory build Since Q4 2025, there has been increasing market discussion about acyclical reversal in the hog market. The underlying reason is that many bottom-fishing opportunities. However, it is important to note that livehog futures were only launched in 2021, at the beginning of the post- That said, most market participants still rely on valuation frameworksformed during the ASF cycle, anchoring to traditional price patterns andthe hog-to-grain ratio for bottom-fishing. This overlooks the fact that With the March (03) contract hitting limit down into delivery pricing,this signals a renewed convergence between futures and spot under Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. China's Ministry of Water Resources, along with six other departments,has issued a guideline to accelerate the green transformation and high- By this point, China aims to foster a high-quality development pattern ofsmall hydropower that aligns with the country's comprehensive greentransition of economic and social development, according to the ministry. 2. China has unveiled a new list of 13 major foreign-funded projects with The new batch of projects is mainly in the manufacturing sector,including electronics, chemicals, automobiles and electrical machinery, Amid efforts to strengthen support for the service sector and promotedeeper integration between modern services and advanced manufacturing, Investment sources for these projects are diversifying, with companiesfrom Britain, Germany, Switzerland, Sweden and Türkiye involved, the NDRC China will improve follow-up services for these projects, step up supportfor foreign-invested enterprises, and address their concerns and So far, such major foreign-funded projects have seen cumulativeinvestment reach 108 billion U.S. dollars, the NDRC data showed. February, a new edition of the Catalog of Encouraged Industries forForeign Investment came into effect, with the goal of channeling more According to this year's government work report, the country pledges todeepen reform of the institutional framework for promoting foreign 3. Chinese heavy machinery manufacturer Zoomlion on Wednesday inauguratedthe first phase of its first localized intelligent manufacturing plant The project, with a total investment of 43 billion forints (125 millionU.S. dollars), is expected to create 800 jobs, Hungarian Minister of Szijjarto said Hungary has benefited from the all-weather comprehensivestrategic partnership for the new era signed with China in 2024, noting Over the past 10 years, the Hungarian government has signed agreementswith Chinese companies on 80 major investments, creating 50,000 local The new plant marks a key milestone in the company's European strategy,Ren Huili, vice president of Zoomlion and general manager of Zoomlion The project will strengthen the company's localized manufacturing,research and development, and service capabilities in Europe, enabling Xinhua) Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consulting The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst