晨间洞察：2026年3月17日

Morning Insight:March 17, 2026 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： U.S. soybeans:Overnight soybean futures hit the daily limit down, mainlydue to the failure of expectations that China would purchase anadditional 8 million tons of U.S. soybeans. One of the key drivers behind From a medium-term perspective, South America continues to see strongsoybean harvests, and supply pressure has yet to be fully released. In PET bottle chips:Tight spot supply combined with upstream productioncuts is supporting a near-term strong but volatile market; the strategy been relatively fast this year. At the same time, this period is also akey window for fulfilling export orders. After following the continuous With overseas refineries facing potential output cuts, export demand isexpected to remain robust, keeping the supply–demand balance for bottle However, the premium in the near-month structure has become relativelyelevated. The recommended approach is to buy on price pullbacks, while Platinum and palladium:Current high-frequency data remains broadlyconsistent with earlier observations. Platinum continues to show some However, from a statistical regression perspective, downside room alsoappears limited, and in the short term prices are likely to re-anchor to At the same time, platinum and palladium have yet to decouple from goldand silver to form independent trends. There is some divergence in views this backdrop, the main bullish narrative for platinum lies in thepotential repair of the gold–platinum ratio and its rigid demand in Overall, directional drivers for both platinum and palladium remainunclear. Greater emphasis is therefore placed on arbitrage opportunities, Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. China's crude oil production returned to growth in the first twomonths of the year, while crude processing and natural gas output From January to February, China's industrial crude oil output reached35.73 million tonnes, up 1.9 percent year on year, reversing the 0.6 Crude oil processing also maintained steady growth during the period.Total crude throughput at industrial refineries reached 122.63 million Meanwhile, natural gas production continued to grow steadily. Output fromindustrial enterprises above a designated size totaled 44.6 billion cubic 2. Carbon emissions allowances closed at 39.5 yuan (about 5.72 U.S. transaction day at Guangzhou Emissions Exchange. A total of 51 tonnes of allowances were transacted on Monday with a The allowances, officially known as Guangdong Emissions Allowances(GDEA), are carbon dioxide emissions caps assigned to companies. Firms Since its opening in December 2013, the market has traded 233.41 million 3. China's foreign exchange market remained generally stable in Februarydespite heightened geopolitical tensions and increased volatility in The Chinese foreign exchange market recorded transactions worth 2.6trillion U.S. dollars in February, while cross-border receipts and In February, non-banking sectors recorded a net inflow of 35.6 billiondollars in cross-border capital, while banks posted a forex settlement Overall, China's foreign-related economy is developing steadily, theforeign exchange market remains active, corporate forex settlement Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consulting The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solely Disclaimer The information in this report is derived from publicly available sources, but the Company does not guarantee the accuracy,cohesiveness, or reliability of such information. The research, opinions, and forecasts contained in this report reflect theCompany'sjudgment as of the date of the report's release. The prices of the underlying futures analyzed in the report may fluctuate, and past The research services mentioned in this report may not be suitable for individual clients and do not constitute private consulting advice forclients. Clients should consider whether any opinions or suggestions in this report are appropriate when applied to their specific situation.Under no circumstances do the rese