晨间洞察：2026年4月13日

Morning Insight:April 13, 2026 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Chemicals:Ongoing geopolitical volatility amplifies cost swings; dualcontraction in supply and demand persists under high volatilityGeopolitical developments remain fluid, driving amplified volatility on On the naphtha side, Middle Eastern supply continues to contract, withnon-Middle Eastern sources supplementing approximately 600–800kt per Across segments, both aromatics and olefins integrated supply chains areexpected to remain broadly stable in April, with a lower likelihood of maintenance, suggesting that total supply reductions may expand On the demand side, after last week’s price declines, some downstreamplayers have offered discounts to secure orders, indicating thatunderlying demand has not disappeared. However, elevated volatility Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. China's export sector is expected to remain resilient amid the globalenergy supply shock, supported by the country's high degree of energy China's electricity supply system is largely insulated from the currentenergy supply shock due to several structural factors, the report noted. The country has made rapid progress in integrating alternative energysources, including wind, solar and nuclear power. However, while its new A regulated electricity system also ensures that manufacturers havestable access to power, insulating Chinese exporters from the current Given these unique advantages, Nomura noted that while its 2026 annualoutlook had projected a moderate slowdown in China's export growth, the China's foreign trade has posted a robust start to the year, with exports 2. China State Railway Group Co., Ltd. announced on Saturday that railwayconstruction has been advancing with high quality and efficiency in the In the first three months, China's railways completed 137.9 billion yuan(about 20.09 billion U.S. dollars) in fixed-asset investment, a year-on- The company has leveraged favorable policies, including those for majornational projects and programs, to fully leverage the advantages of China will continue to push forward national key railway projects in2026, with more than 2,000 kilometers of new national railway lines to be 3. China's automobile production and sales rose sharply in March from the Automobile output totaled 2.92 million units in March and sales came inat 2.9 million units, surging 74.4 percent and 60.6 percent month on New energy vehicle (NEV) output and sales stood at 1.23 million units and In the first quarter of the year, automobile output reached 7.04 million During the same period, NEV output and sales came in at 2.97 million Looking ahead to the second quarter, the effects of policies such as thelarge-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in programs will of new model launches, helping sustain market momentum and boost autoconsumption, said Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consultingbusiness in the futures market, as approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (Approval No. [2011]1449). The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solely Disclaimer The information in this report is derived from publicly available sources, but the Company does not guarantee the accuracy,cohesiveness, or reliability of such information. The research, opinions, and forecasts contained in this report reflect theCompany'sjudgment as of the date of the report's release. The prices of the underlying futures analyzed in the report may fluctuate, and past The research services mentioned in this report may not be suitable for individual clients and do not constitute private consulting advice forclients. Clients should consider whether any opinions or suggestions in this report are appropriate when applied to their specific situation.Under no circumstances do the research or opinions expressed in this report constitute investment advice to any individual person. Under Copyright Statement The copyright of this report is solely owned by the Company. W