晨间洞察：2026年6月18日

Morning Insight:June 18, 2026 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Live Hogs:Profitability pressures and policy developments are jointly Since March 2026, the entire hog breeding industry has fallen below cash-cost breakeven levels and entered a period of deep losses, with the Given the inherent lags and fluctuations between sow inventories andactual piglet production, driven by variables such as breeding rates, In addition, market reports circulated on June 17 indicating thatproducers may be required to reduce slaughter weights by 3–5 kilogramsper hog and achieve targeted sow inventory reductions by the end of recovery. Against this backdrop, front-month contracts are expected to remain underpressure as physical supply continues to weigh on the market, while Equity Index Futures:Markets have entered a renewed consolidation phasefollowing a more hawkish-than-expected signal from the Federal Reserve.Early this morning, Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh made his highlyanticipated public debut. Market participants interpreted the event as In the short term, US equity markets may not have fully digested theimplications of the Fed’s hawkish stance. With the Dragon Boat Festival Looking further ahead, the inflation outlook remains closely tied todevelopments in the Middle East. Should geopolitical tensions begin to following the current period of consolidation. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China's National Financial Regulatory Administration unveiled a raft The measures include support for offshore finance, free-trade offshorebonds, reinsurance, shipping, commercial pension products, elderly-care To help build an offshore financial system compatible with the vision,the administration has jointly issued an action plan on offshore financewith the People's Bank of China, the National Development and Reform The administration will also support Shanghai's further development as aninternational reinsurance center and an international shipping center. international standards for digital shipping and trade finance, promoteresearch on shipping insurance and explore international shipping It will also support Shanghai in developing locally-tailored commercialpension products and piloting elderly-care service trusts, while backing 2. Carbon emissions allowances closed at 37.32 yuan (5.48 U.S. dollars) A total of 3 tonnes of allowances were transacted on Wednesday with a The allowances, officially known as Guangdong Emissions Allowances(GDEA), are carbon dioxide emissions caps assigned to companies. Firms Since its opening in December 2013, the market has traded 234.043 million 3. China's top securities regulator vowed on Wednesday to roll out aslate of reforms for the sci-tech innovation board, known as the STAR Speaking at the 2026 Lujiazui Forum in Shanghai, Wu noted that amid efforts to foster industries of the future, the commission will supporthard-tech companies in quantum technology, biomanufacturing, embodied AI In advancing reforms on the ChiNext board, China's Nasdaq-style board ofgrowth enterprises, the CSRC will increase support for new types of The CSRC will further diversify investment products and tools, includingthe launch of active exchange-traded funds on the Shanghai and Shenzhen To further boost high-level two-way opening-up of the capital market, theCSRC will explore a pilot program for RMB foreign exchange futures, and The regulator will also actively support foreign institutions in setting As global financial assets are undergoing profound rebalancing andreallocation, Wu said Chinese assets are attracting growing attention and Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consultingbusiness in the futures market, as approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (Approval No. [2011]1449). The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solely Disclaimer The information in this report is derived from publicly available sources, but the Company does not guarantee the accuracy,cohesiveness, or reliability of such information. The research, opi