晨间洞察：2026年6月25日

Morning Insight:June 25, 2026 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Live Hogs:Divergence Between Heavyweight and Standard Hogs Persists as Recent market attention has centered on the growing divergence betweenheavyweight hogs and standard-weight hogs. While heavyweight hog prices We expect this divergence to persist in the near term. The primary driveris the increasing willingness among producers to reduce slaughterweights, while overall slaughter volumes remain subdued, leaving However, the longer this divergence persists, the more constructive theoutlook becomes for deferred contracts. First, continued strength inheavyweight hog prices implies a more meaningful reduction in marketable price elasticity could increase significantly. Overall, while near-term fundamentals remain mixed due to the ongoingdivergence between heavyweight and standard-weight hog markets, the Precious Metals:Broad-Based Breakdown Leaves Prices Vulnerable Despite Precious metals have suffered a sharp two-day selloff, culminating in abroad technical breakdown across the complex. Shanghai silver was the As we have highlighted previously, investors should avoid prematurelyanchoring to perceived price bottoms when persistent short-sellingpressure continues to overwhelm long-side participation. Gold, in From a macro perspective, we believe the core driver behind the latestweakness has shifted away from the traditional real-interest-rate continued to decline—a development that would historically providesupport for precious metals—yet prices have failed to respond positively. At the same time, international oil prices have also declined, suggestingthat markets have largely unwound the pessimistic expectations Looking further ahead, we continue to believe that central bank goldpurchases and long-term concerns surrounding US fiscal sustainability and Overall, we maintain the view that, absent a clear new catalyst, preciousmetals are likely to remain in a range-bound to moderately bearishenvironment. While technical rebounds or positive macro surprises may Aluminum:Macro Headwinds Weigh on Sentiment, While Micro Fundamentals The aluminum market has recently come under pressure alongside the broader non-ferrous and precious metals complex, with prices experiencinga pronounced correction amid a synchronized risk-off move acrosscommodity markets. The weakness has been driven primarily by macro From a medium-to long-term industry perspective, we increasingly believethat both aluminum prices and smelting profitability may be approaching In the near term, we recommend closely monitoring market sentiment andtrading dynamics for potential buying opportunities following periods of Nevertheless, should the broader macro trend definitively shift toward amore sustained risk-off environment, the medium-term outlook for aluminum Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. Senior officials from the Chinese government have pledged solid These officials, including Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing and representativesfrom multiple central government ministries and authorities, made the Lawmakers at the meeting reviewed a State Council report on progress inbuilding a unified national market, and held a joint inquiry. Zhao Leji, During the meeting, lawmakers raised questions covering a wide range ofkey issues, including progress and targets for the building of a unified Addressing the inquiries, Zhang said that notable progress has been Heurged the State Council and relevant departments to accelerate theformulation of dedicated regulations for a unified national market, Presiding over the meeting, Xiao Jie, vice chairman of the NPC StandingCommittee, urged the State Council and relevant departments to earnestly 2. China's Ministry of Commerce has issued and put into effect new rulesregarding the investigation of industrial and supply chain security in a The 22-article document specifies the scope, content, procedures andremedial actions for security investigations, thereby providing clear The ministry will carry out the investigations in accordance with the lawto protect the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises and The rules are in line with a set of regulations on industrial and supplychain security released by the State Council in April 2026, which are 3. The central parity rate of the Chinese currency renminbi, or the yuan,weakened 24 pips to 6.8195 against the U.S. dollar Wednesday, according Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consultingbusiness in the futures market, as approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (Approval No. [2011]1449). The views and information contained in this report are