Morning Insight: February 25, 2026

Morning Insight:February 25,2026 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Lithium carbonate:Supply–demand conditions are relatively tight, andprices are biased to the upside in the short term. Futures surgedyesterday as capital rotated into a supply-tightening narrative. On thenews front, adjustments to U.S. tariff policies during the holiday areexpected to reduce export tariffs on energy storage batteries by 5%,providing marginal short-term support to export expectations. Inaddition, according to preliminary verification based on Zhonglianjininformation, market rumors that Zimbabwean lithium ore exports were onceagain halted by the Minerals Marketing Corporation of Zimbabwe (MMCZ) arelargely accurate. This has prompted funds to price in tighter supplyexpectations, further lifting futures prices. The dominant trading logichas shifted from demand-driven before the holiday to supply-driven, andunder a fundamentally tight backdrop, changes on the supply side tend toamplify price elasticity. From a spot market perspective, SMM data showindustry inventories have declined for five consecutive weeks, anddownstream participants conducted procurement yesterday, providingrelatively solid support to the market floor. Going forward, attentionshould be paid to Zimbabwe’s export policies and actual downstreamproduction schedules in March. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China's civil aviation sector handled 22.05 million passenger tripsduring the 2026 Spring Festival holiday--up 7.7 percent from the sameperiod of 2025, according to data released on Tuesday by the CivilAviation Administration of China (CAAC). The sector operated an average of 18,956 flights each day of the nine-dayholiday, which concluded on Monday, marking a 4.4 percent increase fromthe previous year, the CAAC said. The Spring Festival, which is also known as Chinese New Year, fell onFeb. 17 this year, providing an occasion for family reunions and travel.The 2026 holiday was a record-long nine days, driving even strongerdemand for transport during the peak period. Data from the Ministry of Transport shows that more than 2.8 billionpassenger trips were made across all regions of China during the holiday.(Source: Xinhua) 2. The People's Bank of China on Tuesday announced that it will conduct a600-billion-yuan (about 86.44 billion U.S. dollars) one-year medium-termlending facility (MLF) operation on Wednesday, aiming to maintain ampleliquidity in the country's banking system. The central bank said the MLF operation will be carried out using afixed-quantity, interest-rate-bidding and multiple-price-bidding method.With a 300-billion-yuan MLF operation maturing this month, the move willresult in a net injection of 300 billion yuan, marking the 12thconsecutive month of expanded rollovers. The MLF was introduced in 2014 to help commercial and policy banksmaintain liquidity by allowing them to borrow from the central bank usingsecurities as collateral. (Source: Xinhua) 3. China's one-year loan prime rate (LPR), a market-based benchmarklending rate, came in at 3 percent Tuesday, unchanged from the previousmonth. The over-five-year LPR, on which many lenders base their mortgage rates,also remained unchanged from the previous reading of 3.5 percent,according to the National Interbank Funding Center. LPRs reflect the level of financing costs for households and businesses.Lower rates will ease the burden on borrowers, leading to higher levelsof investment and consumption. Interest rates on newly issued loans in China have stayed at relativelylow levels. Data show that in January 2026, the weighted average interestrate for new corporate loans was around 3.2 percent, about 20 basispoints lower than a year earlier, while that for new personal housingloans was 3.1 percent, essentially unchanged compared to a year earlier.China will maintain a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loosemonetary policy in 2026, according to the Central Economic WorkConference held last December. (Source: Xinhua) 2026/2/28Statistical Communique on the 2025 National Economicand Social Development Source:National Bureau of Statistics of China Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consultingbusiness in the futures market, as approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (Approval No. [2011]1449). The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report,