Morning Insight: February 24, 2026

Morning Insight:February 24,2026 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Stock index futures:The Year of the Horse is still likely to begin on apositive note. During the holiday, overseas markets remained broadlystable with slight gains, though U.S. equities pulled back overnight amidrenewed AI concerns and tariff uncertainties. Looking ahead,first, nomajor unexpected black swan events occurred during the holiday, which issupportive of risk appetite. Second, external drivers include the U.S.ruling that certain Trump-era tariffs were unlawful, followed by Trump’sannouncement of a 15% tariff;overall, there remains some possibility ofreduced tariffs on China under the new policy framework. Domestically,key highlights during the holiday were strong travel consumption, robustbox office performance, and the rise of China’s robotics industry. Inparticular, the latter is expected to spark a new wave of enthusiasm forrobotics-related stocks in the short term, boosting risk appetite and thewealth effect, and becoming an important pillar of market support.Historically, post-holiday market style tends to tilt toward technology,and thematic momentum may once again replicate this pattern. Furtherahead, with the“Two Sessions”approaching, policy expectations arelikely to be actively traded beforehand, though it is also common to seemarkets rise into the event and then pull back. Overall, we expect themarket to remain relatively strong in the early post-holiday period,whilecontinuing to monitor developments in the AI narrative, tariffs andgeopolitical changes, domestic policy direction, and emerging industrythemes. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China's state-owned enterprises (SOEs) directly administered by thecentral government stepped up investment in research and development(R&D) in 2025 as part of efforts to advance innovation-drivendevelopment, data from the country's state-asset regulator showed.Their R&D spending reached 1.1 trillion yuan (about 158.51 billion U.S.dollars) last year, marking the fourth consecutive year that annualinvestment exceeded the 1-trillion-yuan threshold, according to theState-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the StateCouncil. R&D intensity, the percentage of revenue that is reinvested in R&D, stoodat 2.86 percent last year, the data showed. These SOEs employed 1.44 million R&D personnel and had established 474national-level R&D platforms. They have also played an increasinglyimportant role in promoting collaborative innovation among enterprises,universities and research institutes, the commission said. (Source:Xinhua) 2. In 2025, China saw a strong expansion of green loans, channeling morefinancial resources into low-carbon sectors and providing solid momentumfor accelerating the country's green economic and social transition, thecentral bank said. The balance of China's green loans in local and foreign currencies stoodat 44.8 trillion yuan (about 6.46 trillion U.S. dollars) at the end of2025, up 20.2 percent year on year, according to a report released by thePeople's Bank of China. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025), green loans grew at anaverage annual rate of 30.2 percent, 21.1 percentage points higher thanthat of total lending, while their share of overall loan balances surgedfrom 6.7 percent to 16.2 percent. During the period, cumulative green bond issuance reached 5.2 trillionyuan, with outstanding balances of 2.4 trillion yuan, making China one of the world's largest green bond markets, according to the report.Going forward, the PBOC will extend support to cover more areas withcarbon-reduction benefits, help unlock the value of resources andenvironmental assets, and support financial institutions in participatingin an orderly manner in the development of thenational carbon market,the report said. (Source: Xinhua) 3. China's bond market custody balance stood at 196.7 trillion yuan(about 28 trillion U.S. dollars) at the end of 2025, data from thePeople's Bank of China showed. The central bank's report on financial market performance in 2025indicated that net financing of government bonds reached 13.8 trillionyuan last year, an increase of 2.5 trillion yuan from 2024. Net financing of corporate bonds stood at 2.4 trillion yuan, an increaseof 482.3 billion yuan year on year. At the end of 2025, the custody balance of overseas institutions in theChinese bond market hit 3.5 trillion yuan, accounting for 1.8 percent ofthe total. In 2025, the cumulative issuance of Panda bonds hit 183.06 billion yuan,and 56 new overseas institutions entered the interbank bond market. Chart 6:Upcoming Important Economic Data Calendar 2026/2/28Statistical Communique on the