晨间洞察：2025年11月24日

Morning Insight:November 24, 2025 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Ferrous Metals: Changes in Raw Material Expectations, Prices Shifting Industry Chain Logic:Steel demand has entered the off-season, and steelinventories remain relatively high. The ferrous industry chain is Macro Sentiment:Iron ore expectations are poor for two reasons. First,the market has revised expectations for a December Fed rate cut,strengthening the U.S. dollar and pressuring pro-cyclical assets across Sentiment for coking coal is even worse. First, domestic policy directionhas shifted: as temperatures fall, coal is transitioning from the “anti-involution” trade to the “guaranteed supply” trade, meaning expectations Delivery Dynamics:The January 2026 iron ore contract (2601) has a basisof 32 yuan/ton. Since iron ore is highly standardized, contract-deliverybasis can be fully arbitraged, and combined with steel mills stocking up Because of the presence of “technology coal,” coking coal shows largediscounts into delivery. Last Friday, Shanxi mid-sulfur primary coking yuan/ton—a 95-yuan basis—while the 2512 contract was around 1,000yuan/ton, nearly a 200-yuan discount. The delivery balance clearly favors Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1.Counties are basic units of Chinese civilization, and the explorationand transformation of their cultural genes are becoming a key driver of The report, titled "New Era County Economics," was released on Friday byXinhua Institute, a national-level think tank affiliated with Xinhua NewsAgency, at the Belt and Road Forum for International Think Tank Moreover, the vision of cities integrated into nature, allowing residentsto enjoy landscapes and retain hometown love, reflects not only an The document also highlights integrating ecological governance with thedevelopment of industries with local features, which enables rural areas China's county-level development has broken away from the Westernapproach of "polluting first, clearing up later," offering a sustainable 2.China's electricity consumption, a key barometer of economic activity, Power use rose 10.4 percent year on year in October to 857.2 billion Power consumed by the overall industrial sector rose 6.4 percent year onyear, while the tertiary sector saw a 17.1 percent increase. Residents' From January to October, China's total power use climbed 5.1 percent to 3.Exports flowing through Beijing's two major airport hubs rose steadilyin the first 10 months of the year, highlighting the growing role of Combined exports via Beijing Capital International Airport and BeijingDaxing International Airport reached 214.64 billion yuan (about 30.28 In total, Beijing recorded 2.67 trillion yuan in goods trade in the first In the first 10 months, Beijing's emerging industries showed strongmomentum. Exports of green and low-carbon products climbed 22.4 percentfrom a year earlier, while biomedicine exports rose 15.8 percent and The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solely Disclaimer The information in this report is derived from publicly available sources, but the Company does not guarantee the accuracy,cohesiveness, or reliability of such information. The research, opinions, and forecasts contained in this report reflect theCompany'sjudgment as of the date of the report's release. The prices of the underlying futures analyzed in the report may fluctuate, and past The research services mentioned in this report may not be suitable for individual clients and do not constitute private consulting advice forclients. Clients should consider whether any opinions or suggestions in this report are appropriate when applied to their specific situation.Under no circumstances do the research or opinions expressed in this report constitute investment advice to any individual person. Under Copyright Statement The copyright of this report is solely owned by the Company. Without written permission, no institution or individual may reproduce, copy,publish, or quote this report in any form. If consent is obtained from the Company for citation or publication, it must be used within thepermitted scope, an