晨间洞察：2025年10月21日

Morning Insight:October 21,2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Benzene:Fundamentals remain weak, though valuation is relatively low.In the short term, sanctions are stillhaving an impact, disruptingbenzene supply in parts of Central China and leadingsome downstreamplants to reduce operating rates. However, production in South China hasstarted to recover, and several previously idled units are graduallyresuming operations, resulting in a rebound in overall benzene supply.Port inventories continued to decline smoothly in October, but highimport volumes have led to a rapid buildup of implicit raw materialinventories downstream, leaving total stock levels moderately high. Onthe cost side, BZN prices have seen a slight rebound from low levels,mainly because expectations of tight naphtha supply in Q4 have eased, andsupply is expected to remain ample before December. On the demand side, styrene is in a clear negative feedback phase;downstream hard plastics producers are in a partial stop-loss mode afterprevious overbuying. In summary, short-term fundamentals continue to point downward, butcurrent valuations are relatively low—short positions should considertaking profits. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China's fixed-asset investment went down 0.5 percent year on year inthe first three quarters of 2025, data from the National Bureau ofStatistics (NBS) showed Monday. The investment totaled 37.15 trillion yuan (about 5.23 trillion U.S.dollars) during the period, the NBS said in a statement. The decrease was mainly driven by weak real estate investment. Excludingthe property sector, project investment increased 3 percent year on yearin the first three quarters, according to the NBS. During this period, investment in the manufacturing sector rose 4percent, with investment in consumer goods manufacturing up 6.3 percentand equipment manufacturing up 1.6 percent. Investment in the productionand supply of electricity, heat, gas and water jumped 15.3 percent.Infrastructure investment rose 1.1 percent year on year in the firstthree quarters. Investment in the internet and related services surged20.6 percent, while spending on water and railway transport increased12.8 percent and 4.2 percent, respectively. Private investment in infrastructure grew 7 percent, accounting for 20percent of total infrastructure investment, up 1.1 percentage points froma year earlier. (Source: Xinhua) 2. China's retail sales of consumer goods went up 4.5 percent year onyear in the first three quarters of 2025, data from the National Bureauof Statistics (NBS) showed Monday. The country's retail sales of consumer goods totaled 36.5877 trillionyuan (about 5.16 trillion U.S. dollars) during the period, data from theNBS showed.The growth rate was 1.2 percentage points higher than that during thesame period last year, said Yu Jianxun, an official with the NBS.In September, retail sales rose 3 percent year on year.As policy measures to boost service consumption took effect, pent-updemand was released, which translated into stronger market growth, Yu said. In the first three quarters, retail sales in the service sector rose 5.2percent year on year, outpacing the growth rate of goods retail sales by0.6 percentage points. From January to September, retail sales of consumer goods in urban areasrose 4.4 percent year on year, while retail sales in rural areas expanded4.6 percent year on year. Online retail sales remained a bright spot, climbing 9.8 percent year onyear in the first nine months, the NBS data showed. Supported by consumption-boosting policies this year, the supply of goodsand services has improved, steadily unleashing demand and leading to anexpanded and upgraded consumer market, according to Yu. Yu also noted that there is still room to boost the consumption appetiteof households and unlock their spending potential. To foster high-quality development of the consumer market, efforts shouldfocus on implementing consumption-boosting measures, stabilizingemployment and incomes, creating diverse consumption scenarios, andexpanding service consumption, Yu said. (Source:Xinhua) 3. China's value-added service output went up 5.4 percent year on year inthe first three quarters of 2025, data from the National Bureau ofStatistics (NBS) showed Monday. In this period, the service sector accounted for 58.4 percent of China'sgross domestic product, up 0.8 percentage points year on year, andcontributed 60.7 percent to the country's economic growth. The index gauging the country's service industry output rose 5.6 percentyear on year in September, maintaining rapid growth, said Peng Yongtao,an official with the NBS. (Source: Xinhua) Guotai Junan Futures C