晨间洞察：2025年9月8日

Morning Insight:September 8, 2025 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Glass:Short-term rebound unlikely to sustain, higher probability of weak On Friday, glass prices surged sharply, possibly in response to certainmacro-industrial information circulating that day. However, no new policyannouncements were observed from relevant authorities over the weekend. It is important to note that the bullish thesis has not yet reached itsfalsification point. On the one hand, anti-deflation and anti-involutionremain overarching themes, and their eventual impact on the glass Natural Rubber:Supported by macro and fundamentals, market bullish Overseas raw material prices remain high, breaking the expectation oflower supply-driven raw material prices. Against the backdrop ofincreased imports in the first seven months, domestic spot inventories Regarding the basis, on Friday the basis of RSS3 versus the RU maincontract was-925 CNY/ton, widening 15 CNY/ton week-on-week; the basis of Copper: Priceslack trend-driven opportunities, overall maintaining a From a fundamental perspective, LME inventories are basically stable, andthe spot discount has narrowed. After copper prices rose, domestic Recycling policies are unstable, and blister copper processing fees facepressure. Tight supply of copper concentrate and scrap copper, combined From a macro perspective, overseas conditions remain uncertain, providinglittle trend guidance for prices. In terms of trading strategy, the focus Stock Index Futures:Upward logic gradually shifting toward profitability Last week, the market underwent a correction. As we have repeatedlyemphasized, corrections under scenarios such as risk-premium-driven orvaluation-pulling rallies are mainly influenced by both internal andexternal factors, with internal factors being dominant. Althoughregulatory actions have eased recently, the core drivers of this upwardmove—including the restoration of market macro expectations and the promotion of long-term reforms in capital markets, which increase willingness for equity allocation—have not materially changed. Therefore, the market is unlikely to experience a trend-driven pullback. Over the weekend, improvements in the capital market system are stillongoing, and expectations for Federal Reserve easing have risen, both ofwhich support sentiment recovery. However, judging from the current from anti-involution measures or next year’s policies aimed at Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. China's foreign exchange reserves totaled 3.3222 trillion U.S.dollars at the end of August, up by 29.9 billion U.S. dollars, or 0.91 In August, the U.S. dollar index fell as expectations on the monetarypolicies of major economies and macroeconomic data influenced the China's economy continues to maintain steady growth, with strongresilience and vitality, providing solid support for the overall 2. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) on Fridayreleased draft regulations that would lower the rates of sales-related The new draft rules, issued to solicit public opinion, are mainly concerned with reducing fees such as subscription fees and salesservice charges. They mark the third phase of a fee-rates reform Experts estimate the new draft rules will save investors about 30billion yuan (about 4.2 billion U.S. dollars) a year, bringing total Industry insiders view this reform as a solid step in improving theservice of fund sales institutions, and in fostering a healthy 3. China's top legislature is set to mull a draft environmental codewith stipulations on the improved promotion of green and low-carbon The NPC Standing Committee will convene the session from Sept. 8 to12, and lawmakers are scheduled to deliberate on the draft for a It also contains clear stipulations on the establishment of a nationalcarbon-emissions trade exchange, and on the strengthening of relevant China unveiled the draft code in April and solicited public opinionsfrom April 30 to June 13. A total of 11,176 comments have been The code features a specific part on green and low-carbon development, which stipulates rules on the development of a circular economy,energy conservation and the country's green, low-carbon A draft on the national park law, a draft revision to the law onarbitration, and a draft law on the safety management of hazardous Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consultingbusiness in the futures market, as approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (Approval No. [2011]1449). The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to targ