晨间洞察：2026年6月9日

Morning Insight:June 9, 2026 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Caustic Soda:Pricing drift, warehouse receipt logic suppressing themarket. Yesterday, caustic soda futures prices fell sharply, mainly dueto expectations of a large volume of warehouse receipts in the Zhejiangregion for the July contract. Originally, the benchmark delivery locationfor caustic soda was Shandong, with pricing also based on Shandong 32%caustic soda. The pricing drift has created uncertainty for long volatility, with near-term delivery factors outweighing supply-demandfundamentals. Looking ahead, after futures move to a large discount, Polyester:Outright trend is strong, calendar spreads to be bought ondips. On the geopolitical front, the US-Iran situation has de-escalated,but Israel-Iran conflict has resurfaced, and navigation through theStrait of Hormuz remains difficult, providing cost-side support. The most Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. China on Monday began construction of a mega waterway project,including what is expected to become the world's largest inland ship Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang, also a member of the Standing Committee, kicked off the construction of the Three Gorges new waterway The 77.2-billion-yuan (about 11.3 billion U.S. dollars) project will adda five-tier, dual-track ship lock north of the existing lock at the Three Once completed, it will almost double the annual throughput capacity at It is the first major project to break ground during China's 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030), a critical stage in the country's efforts 2. China's exports of new energy passenger vehicles (NEVs) surged 112.6percent from a year earlier in May, reaching a total of 424,000 units, Last month, exports rose 4.4 percent compared with April 2026 andaccounted for 54.1 percent of total passenger vehicle shipments abroad, Battery electric vehicles accounted for 59.3 percent of NEV exports, downfrom 66.1 percent a year earlier. Small-sized A00 and A0-class electric Exports have become the main engine of growth for China's auto sector, as Chinese carmakers have pushed deeper into markets such as Latin Americaand Europe, helping offset softer demand in the Middle East and keeping Supported by China's mature electric vehicle supply chain and the growing across both premium and mass-market segments, supporting overall industry The CPCA noted that momentum for a broader recovery in China's automarket will remain limited in June, with the industry expected to 3. The central parity rate of the Chinese currency renminbi, or the yuan,weakened 41 pips to 6.8198 against the U.S. dollar Monday, according to Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consulting The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solely Disclaimer The information in this report is derived from publicly available sources, but the Company does not guarantee the accuracy,cohesiveness, or reliability of such information. The research, opinions, and forecasts contained in this report reflect theCompany'sjudgment as of the date of the report's release. The prices of the underlying futures analyzed in the report may fluctuate, and past The research services mentioned in this report may not be suitable for individual clients and do not constitute private consulting advice forclients. Clients should consider whether any opinions or suggestions in this report are appropriate when applied to their specific situation.Under no circumstances do the research or opinions expressed in this report constitute investment advice to any individual person. Under Copyright Statement The copyright of this report is solely owned by the Company. Without written permission, no institution or individual may reproduce, copy,publish, or quote this report in any form. If consent is obtained from the Company for citation or publication, it must be used within thepermitted scope, and the source must be indicated as "Guotai Junan Futures Research," along with a reminder of the risks associated Unless otherwise specified, all trademarks, service marks, and logos used in this