晨间洞察：2026年3月26日

Morning Insight:March 26, 2026 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： PVC:Wide-range consolidation in the short term; medium-term bias In the near term, PVC is expected to trade in a wide range. Ongoinginstability in the Middle East continues to generate frequent headlines, Fundamentally, elevated PVC inventories will take time to digest. Whileoperating rates at downstream pipe and profile manufacturers have been Procurement is largely demand-driven (hand-to-mouth), and weak new order Following the recent pullback in futures and convergence in basis, PVC is Looking further ahead, spillover effects from Middle Eastern tensions,rising costs, and supply disruptions across both domestic and overseas Given that carbide-based PVC operating rates are already at elevatedlevels domestically, it will be difficult to offset the potential supply Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. The total market capitalization of the Chinese domestic stock markethit a record high at the end of February by exceeding 116.8 trillion yuan The figure marked an increase of 34 percent year on year, a monthly Sectors related to manufacturing, scientific research and technicalservices each saw their market capitalization rise by more than 40percent compared with the same period last year, according to the report. In February alone, the number of companies with market value exceeding100 billion yuan increased by 12, those with a market value ranging from Eight companies, including seven manufacturing firms, made initial public offerings on the domestic stock market during the month, raising a 2. China's e-commerce sector recorded steady growth in the first twomonths of 2026 as digital consumption remained robust, the Ministry of With pro-consumption policies continuing to take effect in the e-commercesector, total online retail sales of goods and services rose by 9.2 Smart products stood out among the key products monitored by the MOC,with online retail sales of smart glasses and window-cleaning robots The ministry's data also showed steady growth in agricultural products,with online retail sales rising by 17.6 percent in the first two months. 3. China has achieved significant breakthroughs in the exploration ofthree key minerals--rare earths, fluorite, and barite--in its At the Maoniuping mining area in Mianning County, a subsidiary of ChinaRare Earth Group Co., Ltd. has confirmed a newly identified rare earth Experts said the discovery is a major reinforcement of the country'sstrategic rare earth reserves, and an innovative model for deep and In addition to the rare earth deposits, the same mining area also Wang Denghong, the director of the Institute of Mineral Resources at the "If rare earths are the 'vitamins of industry,' then fluorite and bariteare the essential foundations and pillars of industry, irreplaceable and Fluorite is a critical raw material in modern industry, with widespreadapplications spanning aerospace, pharmaceuticals, electronics, machinery Barite, meanwhile, finds its largest use in the oil and gas drillingindustry and also plays important roles in chemicals, fillers and medical Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consulting The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solely Disclaimer The information in this report is derived from publicly available sources, but the Company does not guarantee the accuracy,cohesiveness, or reliability of such information. The research, opinions, and forecasts contained in this report reflect theCompany'sjudgment as of the date of the report's release. The prices of the underlying futures analyzed in the report may fluctuate, and past The research services mentioned in this report may not be suitable for individual clients and do not constitute private consulting advice forclients. Clients should consider whether any opinions or suggestions in this report are appropriate when applied to their specific situation.Under no circumstances do the research or opinions expressed in this report constitute investment advice to any individual person. U