晨间洞察：2026年1月20日

Morning Insight:January 20, 2026 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Caustic soda:The downtrend remains under pressure. Falling costs and acollapse in supply–demand fundamentals have led to continued pricedeclines. Ahead of the Lunar New Year, producers face significantdestocking pressure and have little choice but to keep cutting prices;Weiqiao’s caustic soda procurement price has also been repeatedly expected supply curtailments, making it prudent to be cautious about Natural Rubber:Amid expectations of inventory accumulation and apullback in raw material prices, the market is likely to remain range- On the 19th, Thai raw material prices declined: fresh latex fell to 57.5baht/kg (down 0.5 baht/kg), and cup lump dropped to 52 baht/kg (down 0.2baht/kg). Overseas raw material prices are trending lower, weakening costsupport. According to Longzhong Information, as of January 18, 2026, Regarding the price spread between TSR (dark rubber) and RSS (lightrubber), the typical seasonal narrowing has not yet become evident, Overall, continued declines in overseas raw material prices have weakenedthe downside support for natural rubber. The domestic seasonal inventory Propylene:The spot-market driven momentum has weakened, with both costsand warehouse receipts jointly weighing on prices. On the spot side, last circulation, and together with demand support from a rush in polyetherexports, propylene prices rose rapidly. However, the spike-like increasein epichlorohydrin prices suppressed downstream polyether buyinginterest. Yesterday, PO prices fell by more than 200 yuan/ton, and POproducers’enthusiasm for raw material procurement declined markedly, Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. China's value-added service output went up 5.4 percent year on year in2025, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed Monday. The value-added output of information transmission, software and IT business services expanded 10.3 percent year on year. Other key service sectors also recorded output growth, with transportation, storage and postal services up 5.2 percent, wholesale and In 2025, retail sales in the service sector rose 5.5 percent year on "As living standards improve, residents' consumption is shifting toward a In 2025, spending on services accounted for 46.1 percent of per capitaconsumption. This trend is being driven by nationwide efforts to innovate Data also showed that multiple industries experienced high levels ofbusiness activity in December, including telecommunications, broadcasting 2. China's retail sales of consumer goods, a major indicator of thecountry's consumption strength, climbed 3.7 percent year on year in 2025, The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 50.12 trillion yuan(about 7.15 trillion U.S. dollars) last year, according to the National In December alone, the retail sales of consumer goods rose 0.9 percent In 2025, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure toeconomic growth stood at 52 percent, up 5 percentage points from the China's economy expanded by 5 percent year on year last year, meeting the Retail sales in the country's urban regions rose 3.6 percent year on year "As living standards improve, residents' consumption is shifting toward a In 2025, spending on services accounted for 46.1 percent of per capitaconsumption. This trend is being driven by nationwide efforts to innovate Kang noted that e-commerce, live-streaming commerce and onlineentertainment drove robust growth in online consumption last year. At the same time, China's green consumption continues to expand. Digitaltechnologies such as artificial intelligence are being increasingly Looking ahead, numerous favorable factors are poised to support steadyconsumption growth in 2026 despite pressures and challenges, including 3. China's fixed-asset investment went down 3.8 percent year on year in2025, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed Monday. trillion U.S. dollars) last year, according to the NBS. The decrease was mainly driven by weak real estate investment. Excludingthe property sector, fixed-asset investment decreased 0.5 percent year on Despite the overall decrease, sustained investment and expansion continued in emerging sectors, including high-end equipment, green energy Last year, investment in the manufacturing sector rose by 0.6 percent Specifically, investment in the primary industry rose 2.3 percent year onyear, that in the secondary industry rose 2.5 percent, and that in the Among high-tech industries, investment in information services grew by28.4 percent year on year, while investment in aerospace vehicle and In December 2025, investment in fixed assets declined 1.13 percent month Private