Morning Insight: January 12, 2026

Morning Insight:January 12, 2026 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Alumina:The divergence between macro-driven sentiment and micro-levelvaluation continues to widen. Since the“anti-involution”rally onDecember 26, AO futures prices have remained elevated. As we previouslynoted, the rapid surge in futures prices triggered a large volume of spotmaterial to be registered as warehouse warrants, and this spot supply maybe temporarily locked intoforward-dated warrants, potentially leading toshort-term liquidity tightness in the physical market. As a result,during the January delivery window, spot prices may move sideways,limiting near-term downside momentum in futures. However, forward-lookingpressure is becoming increasingly pronounced. Therefore, our near-termview on AO is that while the fundamental drivers remain bearish,theongoing rotation of risk appetite within the nonferrous metals sectorcontinues to provide downside support to futures prices. Once supplycontinues to ramp up and spot market oversupply becomes more evident,spot and futures prices are likely to entera downward spiral throughnegative feedback, and selling on rallies remains the preferred strategy. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China will move faster to establish a data property rightsregistration system, as part of the efforts to promote the use of dataand unlock its value, according to the National Data Administration(NDA). The NDA said it will draw on the experience of registration systems inother fields, actively solicit opinions from various sectors, andinnovatively setting up a registration framework tailored to the uniquecharacteristics of data. Liu Liehong, head of the NDA, chaired a symposium on data property rightsregistration recently. Participants from the Beijing Internet Court andseveral local data management authorities, as well as businessrepresentatives, offered suggestions on improving policy documentsrelated to the data property rights registration system. (Source: Xinhua) 2. China announced on Friday that it will change export tax rebates for arange of products, including photovoltaic and battery products.The announcement, jointly issued by the Ministry of Finance and the StateTaxation Administration, said that export tax rebates for the value addedtax of photovoltaic products will be canceled starting from April 1,2026. Meanwhile, the export tax rebate rate for the value added tax of batteryproducts will be reduced from 9 percent to 6 percent starting from April1, 2026, and will be eliminated starting from Jan. 1, 2027, according tothe announcement. The move is welcomed by China's domestic industry, with the ChinaPhotovoltaic Industry Association saying that the measure will helprestore rational pricing in foreign markets and reduce the risk of tradefrictions for China. Over the long term, the measure will help prevent export prices fromfalling too rapidly and lower the risk of trade disputes further,according to the association. (Source: Xinhua) 3. China has issued new guidelines to promote green microgrids in theindustrial sector, as part of a broader strategy to bolster the newenergy sector and accelerate carbon reduction in key industries. Industrial green microgrids are integrated energy systems designed toprimarily supply clean power to industrial users, combining technologiessuch as solar and wind power, high-efficiency heat pumps, advanced energystorage solutions, and intelligent energy management. Currently, China has over 300 microgrid projects in operation nationwide.However, the sector remains in its pilot phase, facing challengesincluding the lack of unified technical standards, incomplete market-based mechanisms and insufficient coordinationwith the main power grid.To address these issues, the guidelines, jointly issued by fivegovernment departments including the Ministry of Industry and InformationTechnology (MIIT), rolled out an array of measures. According to the official document, newly built renewable power projectsat industrial enterprises and parks must ensure that at least 60 percentof their electricity is consumed locally or in nearby areas on an annualbasis. The development of advanced equipment and technologies will alsobe prioritized, including high-efficiency water electrolysis for hydrogenproduction, fuel cell power generation facilities, and integrated wind-solar flexible hydrogen production systems. An MIIT official said that the ministry will enhance policy support andguidance for key industries, providing solid backing for the green andlow-carbon transformation of major industrial sectors. (Source: Xinhua) Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified