晨间洞察：2026年1月15日

Morning Insight:January 15, 2026 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Nickel:Confrontation between industrial fundamentals and secondary-market capital is driving wide-range volatility in nickel prices.Although spot fundamentals remain weak, with oversupply pressureresonating with expectations of new low-cost hydrometallurgical capacitycoming online, market pricing is mainly anchored to Indonesian nickel ore transition are unlikely to fully outweigh each other, and nickel pricesare expected to fluctuate within a wide range amid the tug-of-war betweenthe two types of capital, with marginal direction hinging on guidance Tin:Tin prices have continued to strengthen in recent days, with themarket hitting the daily limit up at an 8% gain yesterday morning, beforereopening during the night session and gapping higher again, with gainsat one point approaching 11%. From a fundamental perspective, as notedpreviously, persistently tight tin supply, relatively depleted hidden rise, though attention should be paid to potential profit-taking pressure Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. South China's island province of Hainan reported a record-breaking14.727 billion kilowatt-hours in green electricity and green certificate The figure represents an 8.9-fold increase from the 1.488 billionkilowatt-hours traded in 2024, injecting strong momentum into the green, Green electricity is power that is generated with near-zero carbondioxide emissions, and is primarily generated by the sun, wind, or other A province rich in wind and solar resources, Hainan has accelerated itstransformation into a clean energy island and refined its green 2. Chinese authorities on Wednesday announced the extension of a preferential individual income tax policy to support residents replacing The policy will take effect from Jan. 1, 2026 and conclude on Dec. 31,2027, according to a joint announcement issued by the Ministry of Under the arrangement, taxpayers who sell their self-owned homes andpurchase another home within one year will be eligible for a refund of A full refund will be granted if the purchase price of the new home isequal to or higher than the selling price of the original home. If the To qualify for the preferential policy, both the sale and the purchase ofthe homes must take place within the same city. Additionally, the 3. The People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, announced onWednesday that it will conduct a 900-billion-yuan (about 128.35 billion The operation will be carried out with a fixed quantity through interest-rate bidding, with winning bids determined at multiple price levels. It Outright reverse repo operations--a tool the central bank introduced inOctober 2024 to manage liquidity in the national banking system--are These operations have enriched the country's monetary policy toolkit,complementing previous measures such as temporary repos, temporary Xinhua) Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consulting The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solely Disclaimer The information in this report is derived from publicly available sources, but the Company does not guarantee the accuracy,cohesiveness, or reliability of such information. The research, opinions, and forecasts contained in this report reflect theCompany'sjudgment as of the date of the report's release. The prices of the underlying futures analyzed in the report may fluctuate, and past The research services mentioned in this report may not be suitable for individual clients and do not constitute private consulting advice forclients. Clients should consider whether any opinions or suggestions in this report are appropriate when applied to their specific situation.Under no circumstances do the research or opinions expressed in this report constitute investment advice to any individual person. Under Copyright Statement The copyright of this report is solely owned by the Company. Without written permission, no institution or individual may reproduce, copy,publish, or quote this report in any form. If consent is