Morning Insight: January 15, 2026

Morning Insight:January 15, 2026 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Nickel:Confrontation between industrial fundamentals and secondary-market capital is driving wide-range volatility in nickel prices.Although spot fundamentals remain weak, with oversupply pressureresonating with expectations of new low-cost hydrometallurgical capacitycoming online, market pricing is mainly anchored to Indonesian nickel orepolicy and a noticeable increase in secondary-market attention tocommodities, with ample liquidity supporting fund rotation and catch-upbuying sentiment driven by policy-related news from Indonesia. From anindustrial perspective, given Indonesia’s history of frequent andflexible policy adjustments and the practical reality of a quotatransition period in the first quarter, the market remains cautioustoward quota policy outcomes; meanwhile, from a fundamental standpoint,margin recovery is encouraging supply restarts, import arbitrage hasreturned to positive territory, and futures prices carry a substantialpremium over NPI, with hedging pressure and arbitrage flows constrainingupside price elasticity. From a secondary-market perspective, however,the dominant framework remains long-term buying on dips, with greaterfocus on the end of the“dividend”cycle in which low-cost ore attractedsmelting investment, the possibility of cyclical policy shifts in thefuture, and the reinforcing effect of multiple Indonesian policy measuresthat more clearly signal Indonesia’s intention and means to supportresource prices. As a result, during a short-term policy vacuum, theburden ofnear-term fundamental pressure and the narrative of cyclical transition are unlikely to fully outweigh each other, and nickel pricesare expected to fluctuate within a wide range amid the tug-of-war betweenthe two types of capital, with marginal direction hinging on guidancefrom Indonesian government statements. From a trading perspective,outright directional trades have become more challenging, and strategiescombining options are recommended, while during periods of intensifiedcapital confrontation, attention should be paid to emerging structuralopportunities,including domestic–overseas arbitrage when import marginsare elevated and arbitrage linked to fluctuations in the nickel–NPIbasis. Tin:Tin prices have continued to strengthen in recent days, with themarket hitting the daily limit up at an 8% gain yesterday morning, beforereopening during the night session and gapping higher again, with gainsat one point approaching 11%. From a fundamental perspective, as notedpreviously, persistently tight tin supply, relatively depleted hiddeninventories of both tin ore and refined tin domestically, and therelatively low price sensitivity of downstream demand remain the corefoundations supporting this rally. In addition, news of a landslide inWalikale, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, may have provided furthermomentum, as Walikale is home to the Bisie mine, one of the country’s keytin-producing regions, and recent heavy rainfall has renewed concernsover local supply disruptions. In terms of scale, the Bisie mineexperienced a one-month shutdown in 2025 due to armed conflict, withmarginal output losses of less than 2,000 tonnes, and the impact of thecurrent natural disaster is likely smaller, suggesting limited actualsupply disruption. From a trading perspective, it is also notable thatyesterday marked the first instance in nearly a month of prices risingalongside declining open interest, indicating more pronounced shortcovering and forced stop-losses as prices were pushed higher athistorical highs. Looking ahead, we believe tin prices still have room to rise, though attention should be paid to potential profit-taking pressurenear the psychological level of RMB 450,000 per tonne. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. South China's island province of Hainan reported a record-breaking14.727 billion kilowatt-hours in green electricity and green certificatetransactions in 2025, the provincial power exchange center said onWednesday. The figure represents an 8.9-fold increase from the 1.488 billionkilowatt-hours traded in 2024, injecting strong momentum into the green,low-carbon development of the Hainan Free Trade Port, the center noted.Together, the transactions equated to a standard coal consumptionreduction of approximately 5.89 million tonnes and a carbon dioxideemissions cut of about 14.68 million tonnes. Green electricity is power that is generated with near-zero carbondioxide emissions, and is primarily generated by the sun, wind, or otherrenewable sources. Green certificates are the sole proof of renewableenergy consumption, with each certificate marking 1,000 kilowatt-h