早间洞察：2025年11月12日

Morning Insight:November 12,2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Polysilicon:Entering a policy vacuum period, with weak marketperformance relative to fundamentals. According to market news yesterday, wafer prices have fallen, leading toincreased short positions and a decline in the futures market. From a supply-demand perspective, polysilicon is showing a“dualweakness”pattern. On the supply side, upstream producers are graduallycutting production, and supply is expected to contract marginally inNovember. On the demand side, wafer production will further decline inNovember due to falling wafer prices. Overall, the supply-demand balance for November–December is graduallyshifting toward a tight equilibrium, but this remains insufficient tochange the overall high-inventory situation. On the policy front, implementation may be delayed, meaning short-termmarket trading will focus more on fundamental factors. The recommendedstrategy is to short on rebounds and take profits at lower levels. Attention should be paid to the industry’s average cost-line support andinformation from today’s industry meeting. Coking Coal:Supply expectations may face adjustment, and valuations havedeclined. Yesterday, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) releasedan official statement noting that it recently organized a videoconference on energy supply security for the heating season. The meeting once again emphasized (as it did in the October 31 press conference) thegovernment’s strict stance on ensuring stable energy production andsupply. This reflects the authorities’renewed focus on coal supplysecurity. The tug-of-war between ensuring coal supply and advancing the“anti-involution”policy theme may, at the margin, affect market expectationsfor future supply recovery. Meanwhile, with the end of the peak seasonfor steel demand, inventory pressures in finished steel products havebecome increasingly evident. Combined with already heavily compressedsteel mill profit margins, blast furnace operating rates have recentlydeclined rapidly, effectively dampening demand expectations for rawmaterials in the ferrous complex. These factors, together with the earlier valuation correction in iron oreafter profit transfer within the ferrous chain, have added furtherdownward pressure on coking coal prices. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China's recycled non-ferrous metals industry has posted rapid growthduring the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025), with its annualproduction of recycled non-ferrous metals expected to reach 20 milliontonnes this year, per the latest industry data. The domestic output of recycled non-ferrous metals has grown at anaverage annual rate of 7.2 percent since 2021, reaching 19.15 milliontonnes in 2024, the data shows. During the 2021-2024 period, China accounted for a third of the world'stotal production of recycled non-ferrous metals, Ge Honglin, president ofthe China Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Association, said at a recentindustrial convention in Chengdu, the capital of southwest China'sSichuan Province. This rise in production contributed to saving 3.6 billion tonnes ofmining resources during the 2021-2024 period, and to reducing carbondioxide emissions by 560 million tonnes, according to data from theassociation. Technological innovation in the sector has boosted the utilization ofrecycled resources. A growing number of companies in China now userecycled metals as a major source of raw materials, with somemanufacturers reporting that such materials constitute more than 60percent of their total input of raw materials, the association said.In the next five years, China will intensify efforts to promote the high-quality development of the recycled non-ferrous metals industry byenhancing its supply system, expanding the utilization of recycled non-ferrous metals in more fields, and strengthening the sector's digitaltransition, Ge noted. (Source: Xinhua) 2. China's outstanding balance of structural monetary policy instrumentswas 3.9 trillion yuan (about 550.3 billion U.S. dollars) at the end ofSeptember, data from the People's Bank of China (PBOC), the country'scentral bank, showed on Tuesday. In a quarterly report, the central bank said that during the thirdquarter, it had efficiently implemented various structural monetarypolicy instruments and vigorously promoted technology finance, greenfinance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance.By the end of September, technology loans, green loans, inclusive loans,pension industry loans and digital economy industry loans had increasedby 11.8 percent, 22.9 percent, 11.2 percent, 58.2 percent, and 12.9percent year on year, respectively, all exce