早间洞察：2025年11月6日

Morning Insight:November 6, 2025 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Ferrous metals:Carbon elements outperform iron elements. Long-term bottom has been established: 1.For coking coal, anti-involution policies have led to production cutexpectations; raw material reductions could reverse the oversupply 2.Soft landing and interest rate cuts release liquidity, overseas demand 3.Manufacturing and infrastructure investment have slowed due to anti-involution policies, but to escape the deflationary spiral, demand-side Relative strength among commodities: Previously, iron element prices fell significantly, mainly because macrotailwinds had mostly been priced in, iron ore shipments increased, In contrast, carbon elements such as coking coal and coke remain strong,supported by fundamentals: coking coal total inventories are not high, Cotton:Strong support from cost and high basis, but hedging pressure hasnot been fully released in the short term, so cotton futures are expected The cottonseed purchase season is nearing its end, and the logic ofcottonseed prices resonating with cotton futures has largely concluded.For the 2025/26 season, domestic average cotton costs are basically set. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. A freight train carrying 80 containers of goods, including Australiankraft paper and Singaporean puff pastry shortening, departed from Qinzhou The shipment marks a significant milestone, with the cumulative freightvolume of the New International Land-Sea Trade Corridor rail service year, a 63.2 percent increase from the same period last year.Serving as a crucial logistics link between China's western inland Wei Wenkang, head of Qinzhou Port East Station, said that the station'sfreight dispatch volume has continued to grow this year. "So far, the Data show that since 2021, the New Western Land-Sea Corridor hastransported a total of 4.441 million TEUs of goods, solidifying its role 2. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index lost 250.77 points, or 0.97 percent, to Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consulting The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solely Disclaimer The information in this report is derived from publicly available sources, but the Company does not guarantee the accuracy,cohesiveness, or reliability of such information. The research, opinions, and forecasts contained in this report reflect theCompany'sjudgment as of the date of the report's release. The prices of the underlying futures analyzed in the report may fluctuate, and past The research services mentioned in this report may not be suitable for individual clients and do not constitute private consulting advice forclients. Clients should consider whether any opinions or suggestions in this report are appropriate when applied to their specific situation.Under no circumstances do the research or opinions expressed in this report constitute investment advice to any individual person. Under Copyright Statement The copyright of this report is solely owned by the Company. Without written permission, no institution or individual may reproduce, copy,publish, or quote this report in any form. If consent is obtained from the Company for citation or publication, it must be used within thepermitted scope, and the source must be indicated as "Guotai Junan Futures Research," along with a reminder of the risks associated Unless otherwise specified, all trademarks, service marks, and logos used in this report are owned by Guotai Junan Futures orare legallyauthorized for use. No individual or institution may use these trademarks, service marks, or logos without the writtenpermission of Guotai