早间洞察：2025年11月18日

Morning Insight:November 18, 2025 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Caustic Soda:Trend Remains Under Pressure. High production and high inventory levels continue, and the market keepsshorting chlor-alkali margins. On the demand side, considering thatalumina plants likely to cut production are typically the ones with In addition, support from non-alumina downstream sectors is limited, andexports remain under pressure, leaving the supply–demand structure weak.Overall, caustic soda valuations are consistently suppressed by Rapeseed Oil:Watch Actual Imports of Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil; Strong Before year-end, domestic rapeseed import volumes are very limited, andexisting rapeseed oil inventory is concentrated in a few hands. Inaddition, imported rapeseed oil offers high quotations, keeping near-termrapeseed oil spot prices and basis firm. However, since international Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. China's automobile exports rose 15.7 percent year on year in the first The country exported over 5.6 million vehicles during the period, the Specifically, some 2.01 million new energy vehicles (NEV) were exported, In October alone, China's automobile exports rose 22.9 percent from the 2. China saw a forex settlement surplus of 17.7 billion U.S. dollars in Forex purchases by banks reached 214.2 billion dollars last month, while sales stood at 196.5 billion dollars, according to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange. While international financial markets have seen increased volatilitysince October, China's forex market has maintained its stable and sound In the first 10 months of the year, total forex purchases by banks "Overall, China's forex market demonstrates stable expectations, a basicbalance between supply and demand, and strong resilience and vitality," 3. China's fiscal revenue increased by 0.8 percent year on year to nearly18.65 trillion yuan (about 2.63 trillion U.S. dollars) in the first 10 The central government collected approximately 8.19 trillion yuan infiscal revenue during this period, which was down 0.8 percent year on In the first 10 months, China's tax revenue totaled 15.34 trillion yuan,an increase of 1.7 percent year on year. The country's non-tax revenue trillion yuan during the first 10 months of 2025. The central Spending on education came in at roughly 3.41 trillion yuan, up 4.7 Science and technology expenditure totaled 784.7 billion yuan--anincrease of 5.7 percent. Spending on social security and employment, Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consultingbusiness in the futures market, as approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (Approval No. [2011]1449). The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solely Disclaimer The information in this report is derived from publicly available sources, but the Company does not guarantee the accuracy,cohesiveness, or reliability of such information. The research, opinions, and forecasts contained in this report reflect theCompany'sjudgment as of the date of the report's release. The prices of the underlying futures analyzed in the report may fluctuate, and past The research services mentioned in this report may not be suitable for individual clients and do not constitute private consulting advice forclients. Clients should consider whether any opinions or suggestions in this report are appropriate when applied to their specific situation.Under no circumstances do the research or opinions expressed in this report constitute investment advice to any individual person. Under Copyright Statement The copyright of this report is solely owned by the Company. Without written permission, no institution or individual may reproduce, copy,publish, or quote this report in any form. If consent is obtained from the Company for citation or publication, it must be used within thepermitted scope, and the source must be indicated as "Guotai Junan Futures Research," along with a reminder of the risks associated Unless otherwise specified, all trademarks, service marks, and logos used in th