早间洞察：2025年8月14日

Morning Insight:August 14, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Soybean meal:USDA report is bullish, opening upside potential. The core bullish factor in the August USDA report is the tightening ofthe U.S. soybean supply and demand balance sheet: for the old crop year2024/25, the balance sheet tightened because supply remained unchangedwhile demand increased (both U.S. soybeanexports and domestic crushingwere revised up), leading to a reduction in ending stocks. For the newcrop year 2025/26, the balance sheet tightened because the reduction insupply outweighed the reduction in demand, and ending stocks were furtherlowered. We believe that there is still room for U.S. soybean production to berevised down later, as there is little room for acreage to be revised upbut considerable room for yield to be revised down. At present, U.S.trade agreements have made progress, China–U.S. economic and trade talksare ongoing, and the export outlook for U.S. soybeans has improved. Goingforward, attention should be paid to actual export data as confirmation.If the U.S. soybean balance sheet remains tight, U.S. soybeans will stillhaveupside potential. Through cost-side transmission, the upside potential for domestic soybeanmeal futures prices will be further opened. Based on this, one canconsider a“buy on dips, operate on volatility”strategy and method,while noting that volatility is high and risk control is important. Industrial silicon:Upstream gradually resuming production, marketsentiment weakening. From a fundamentals perspective, upstream factories are graduallyresuming production, and there are also signs of resumption in thesouthwest region. Although there is some support on the demand side,there are expectations of price declines ahead for both organic siliconand polysilicon, which has weakened sentiment toward industrial silicon.As upstream production resumes, industry inventories may also accumulate,which would create downward pressure on the market. In the short term, market movements are following coking coal futures;last night’s coking coal performance was weak, which will also disturbtoday’s industrial silicon market. Going forward, the pace of upstreamproduction resumption will be particularly important. If upstreamproduction resumes significantly, supply and demand will swing into largesurplus, creating further downward pressure on themarket. Strategically,the main approach is to short on rallies, while keeping an eye on theinfluence of policy and other factors. Container Freight Index (Europe route):Near-term special-rate slotscombined with expectations of additional ships in the distant months areweakening market sentiment. The main 2510 contract broke downwards,mainly affected by the following news: (1) On Wednesday evening, Hapag-Lloyd releaseda low-price slot offer of USD 1,800/FEU for the NE3 voyageon August 19 (week 34), far below the late-August market FAK averageprice of USD 2,750/FEU. This move reflects Hapag-Lloyd’s aggressive cargoacquisition strategy in a bearish market to secure overall profits; (2)Hapag-Lloyd plans to deploy two extra ships in October. Sentiment towardthe Europe route has weakened. From a fundamentals perspective, booking demand in late August isgradually weakening, capacity is slightly higher than in early August,and the supply–demand balance for carriers is becoming more relaxed.September will most likely see a scenario of both supply and demand declining, but the current recorded capacity reduction of 5% may notmatch the magnitude of the demand decline, so fundamentals are expectedto come under further pressure. In terms of valuation, based on Maersk’s forward quotes and the follow-uppace of other carriers, we estimate that by the end of August the marketFAK freight rate midpoint may be in the USD 2,500–2,600/FEU range. InSeptember, under weak fundamental conditions, carriers will need tostockpile goods in advance for the National Day holiday, and it is highlyprobable that the freight rate midpoint will fall below USD 2,000/FEU.Strategically, the mainapproach is to short the 2510 contract onrallies, while monitoring the pace of September price cuts by carriersand the extent of blank sailings in October. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China's yuan-denominated loans rose 12.87 trillion yuan (1.8 trillionU.S. dollars) in the first seven months of the year, central bank datashowed on Wednesday. (Source: Xinhua) 2. Loan interest subsidy plans for individual consumption and servicesbusinesses are expected to bolster consumption, which is a key engine forthe Chinese economy, an official of the Ministry of Commerce said on Wednesday. In its latest move to spur consumption, China