早间洞察：2025年8月7日

Morning Insight:August 7, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Soybean oil:Expectations of a balance sheet improvement and relativelylow valuation are driving soybean oil prices higher. Under the influence of strong global demand for biodiesel, the overallvegetable oil sector remains firm, and among the four major edible oils,soybean oil is currently relatively undervalued. Although domesticsoybean oil inventories are still building up, the market expects thisaccumulation phase to be nearing its end. In addition, from September toDecember, exports of soybean oil by domestic firms and uncertaintiessurrounding the procurement of new crop U.S. soybeans are expected tosignificantly improve the domestic soybean oil balance sheet. These two major factors have supported the soybean oil September futurescontract in reaching a 23-month high. Soybean oil is expected to remainstrong until its price differential with other oils fully reflects theimproved balance sheet outlook. It is recommended to continue watchingfor opportunities to go long on soybean oil on dips. Copper:Prices are supported, with fundamentals expected to play a largerrole in future price movements. Although macro-level uncertainty may persist, copper’s pricing logic isshifting toward being fundamentally driven as the impact of logisticalfactors fades. On the supply side, copper concentrate remains tight, andsmelters are experiencing significant losses. The price spread betweenrefined and scrap copper has narrowed below the breakeven point, with imports remaining unprofitable, indicating a tight supply of recycledcopper. This may lead to more production cuts or shutdowns at overseassmelters. On the demand side, domestic consumption continues to be driven by thenew energy sector and counter-cyclical industries. Overseas demand,particularly in Southeast and South Asia, also shows clear growth.Overall, while global copper supply may see a surplus in the second halfof the year, unless there is a systemic macro risk, any price pullbackcould prompt enterprises to lock in profits and restock raw materials,keeping visible inventories low and leaving room for price rebounds.In terms of strategy, it is recommended to adopt a buy-on-dip approachfor outright positions, while focusing on calendar spread arbitrage anddomestic-overseas arbitrage for spread trading. Bitumen:The market remains in a sideways trend; some reverse spreadpositions can be held, but the rebound in crack spread is limited.Currently, refinery inventory levels are neutral to slightly low,decreasing from south to north, with inventories in northern regionscontinuing to sit at historically low levels. This keeps downward pricingpressure on refineries relatively manageable. The core fundamental issueslie in weak demand and high social inventory levels. In the south,rainfall remains frequent, particularly in South China, where consumptionis still sluggish. In Shandong, low-priced products dominate the market,and weak demandsignificantly limits the room for bitumen priceincreases. BU (bitumen futures) valuation is also notably weaker comparedto other oil products. On the feedstock side, while diluted bitumen inventories at ports arelow, imports of Merey crude have rebounded from low levels since June andcontinue to improve, with August production scheduled to decrease month-on-month. As a result, there is currently no significant pressure on rawmaterials. It is recommended to closely monitor changes in demand, as asignificant improvement in fundamentals before late August is unlikely. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. Chinese tech giant Huawei has announced the full open-source releaseof its Ascend chip software ecosystem, aiming to support users to exploreits deep potential and undertake customized development independently.Known as CANN (Compute Architecture for Neural Networks), the softwareserves as a bridge between high-level AI training frameworks and Ascendchips, allowing its users to access the computing power without dealingwith chip-level complexities. The announcement was made at an Ascend computing industry summit held inBeijing on Tuesday. Representatives of leading AI enterprises,universities, research institutions and Huawei partners launched aninitiative to develop the CANN open-source ecosystem, aiming to uniteindustry strengths, explore the frontiers of AI and build a thriving chipecosystem. Huawei's Rotating Chairman Xu Zhijun said that computing power remains atthe core of the company's AI strategy. Almost every major computing power card company has a similar software.However, unlike CUDA, which is a closed-source ecosystem that wasdeveloped by U.S. chipmaker Nvidia over nearly t