早间洞察：2025年8月4日

Morning Insight:August 4, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Soy Complex:China is expected to face a significant soybean supply-demand gap before the 2026 Spring Festival. Regardless of whether Chinaimports U.S. soybeans, the cost of imported soybeans is unlikely to dropsubstantially, which will drive up the prices of soybean-derived productssuch as soybean meal and soybean oil. This, in turn, will improvecrushing margins and likely stimulate crushers to increase soybeanpurchases to meet domestic demand. We conducted simulated calculations under two scenarios—importing U.S.soybeans and not importing U.S. soybeans—and estimated related productprices under a breakeven (zero profit) assumption. The price range forsoybean meal is estimated to be around 3,050 RMB/ton at the low end andabout 3,450 RMB/ton at the high end; for soybean oil, the low-endestimate is around 8,150 RMB/ton and the high end is approximately 8,650RMB/ton. Based on this, buying soybean meal and soybean oil on dips isrecommended. Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch News Highlights: 1. China's central bank on Friday pledged to step up its implementationof a moderately loose monetary policy and strengthen support for sci-techinnovation and consumption in the second half of the year. At a mid-year meeting, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) said thatfinancial support for economic growth, structural transformation andhigh-quality development has increased since the start of 2025. As of the end of June, loans granted in the technology, green developmentand elderly care sectors have risen by 12.5 percent, 25.5 percent and 43percent respectively year on year. The PBOC said it will continue deploying a mix of monetary policy toolsto ensure ample liquidity, support reasonable credit growth andstrengthen the transmission of monetary policies. Efforts will also be made to defuse local government debt risks, and toenhance risk monitoring and macroprudential oversight, according to thePBOC.（Source: Xinhua) 2. China's top economic planner on Friday said that another 69 billionyuan (about 9.65 billion U.S. dollars) in ultra-long special treasurybond funds will be allocated in October to support the country's consumergoods trade-in program. This will be the fourth and final batch of the year, according to JiangYi, an official with the National Development and Reform Commission(NDRC), who noted that the country has already issued its third batch ofultra-long special treasury bond funds in the same amount. The Ministry of Finance, together with the NDRC, has this year earmarked300 billion yuan in such funds to back the consumer goods trade-inprogram. The economic performance in the first half of the year demonstratedstrong resilience, with domestic demand contributing 68.8 percent to GDPgrowth and continuing to serve as a driving force for expansion, NDRCofficial Zhou Chen told a press conference Friday. Moving forward, the NDRC will continue to promote the introduction andimplementation of a series of measures to stabilize employment and theeconomy, Zhou said. The NDRC will strengthen economic monitoring, forecasting and earlywarning, regularly conduct policy research and preparation, andcontinuously improve the policy toolkit for stabilizing employment andexpanding domestic demand, Zhou added. The NDRC will formulate a list of preventive measures against acts thatobstruct the unified market and fair competition. It will implement stronger and more effective measures to advance thebuilding of the unified national market as planned. The ratio of social logistics cost to GDP, a key indicator reflectingcost efficiency of the sector, was 14 percent in the first half of 2025,down 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year and hitting arecord low, according to the NDRC. According to a plan unveiled last year, China aims to cut the ratio ofsocial logistics costs to GDP to around 13.5 percent by 2027. (Source:Xinhua) 3. Yangshan Port in east China's Shanghai Municipality has become thecountry's first port to offer bunkering services for liquefied naturalgas (LNG), green methanol, biofuels and ultra-low sulfur fuel oil,according to local authorities. Recently, bunkering vessel Qi Hong 9 carried out a bunkering operation atthe port, supplying 875 tonnes of domestic ultra-low sulfur fuel oil tothe COSCO PRIDE ship. It was the first ship-to-ship bunkering operation involving Chineseultra-low sulfur fuel oil for an internationally navigating vessel inChina, the port said. According to the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the sulfurcontent limit for fuel oil used by ships navigating in certain international waters was reduced from 0.5 percent to 0.1 percent from May